Manufactured Home Production Grows per MHARR-While 21st Century Manufactured Housing Underperformance Examined by Gemini

MHARR report and AI research by Gemini and Copilot explore seemingly contradictory claims and statements made by publicly traded companies that are MHI members.

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S.A., August 6, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ -- According to the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) are the following most recent facts about manufactured home production and the top 10 states as measured by total manufactured home shipments.

MANUFACTURED HOUSING PRODUCTION AND SHIPMENTS GROW IN JUNE 2024

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) reports that according to official statistics compiled on behalf of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), HUD Code manufactured housing industry year-over-year production increased once again in June 2024. Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,509 new homes in June 2024, a 4.1% increase over the 8,169 new HUD Code homes produced in June 2023. Cumulative production for 2024 now totals 51,165 homes, a 16.5% increase over the 43,888 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2023.

A further analysis of the official industry statistics shows that the top ten shipment states from January 2023 -- with monthly, cumulative, current reporting year (2024) and prior year (2023) shipments per category as indicated – are as shown in the attached shipment graphic.

The June 2024 statistics move North Carolina into third place on the cumulative top-ten shipment state list, while Alabama drops slightly to fourth place.

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform is a Washington, D.C.- based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.

-- 30 –

According to ManufacturedHomeProNews.com (MHProNews.com), questions and issues hereby announced releveal information and data regarding manufactured housing industry underperformance in the 21st century. That was one of several topics addressed in a recent Q&A exchange with Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) powered Gemini and previously with Bing's AI powered Copilot. A report with analysis and expert commentary are linked below.

Gemini-‘Evidence Strengthens Enforcing Enhanced Preemption to Increase Manufactured Housing Production’ ‘Concerted Effort-Support Manufactured Housing Can Achieve Unprecedented Success’ MHMarkets

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/gemini-evidence-strengthens-enforcing-enhanced-preemption-to-increase-manufactured-housing-production-concerted-effort-support-manufactured-housing-can-achieve-unprecedented-success-mhmarkets/

Gemini suggested that one possible path to return manufactured housing industry to its former vibrancy, or even to surpass the levels of production achieved in the mid-to-late 1990s is to attract ethically and socially minded investors that are looking for good returns and are willing to behave in contrarian ways.

Gemini New Blood-New Investors in Manufactured Housing, Says: Your Analysis Very Logical Highlights Potential Conflict of Interest Within Manufactured Housing Industry, Much More; plus MHMarkets

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/gemini-new-blood-new-investors-in-manufactured-housing-says-your-analysis-very-logical-highlights-potential-conflict-of-interest-within-manufactured-housing-industry-much-more-plus-mhmarkets/

MHProNews has provided an in depth report with analysis of the latest manufactured housing production data article linked here that examines MHARR, the Manufactured Housing Institute, and the curious lack of legal efforts to press the case for enforcing the enhanced preemption provision of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000.

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/manufactured-home-production-up-6-2024-growth-slows-mhville-leaders-failing-up-kamala-adopts-bidenomics-tammany-patronage-all-but-1-manufactured-housing-linked-stocks-fall-markets-plunge/

That report includes the following HUD Code industry data.

Table
Year U.S. Manufactured Housing Production
1995 344,930
1996 363,345
1997 353,686
1998 373,143
1999 348,075
2000 250,366
2001 193,120
2002 165,489
2003 130,815
2004 130,748
2005 146,881
2006 117,373
2007 95,752
2008 81,457
2009 49,683
2010 50,056
2011 51,618
2012 54,881
2013 60,228
2014 64,334
2015 70,544
2016 81,136
2017 92,902
2018 96,555
2019 94,615
2020 94,390
2021 105,772
2022 112,882
2023 89,169

That means that the 6-year average for new U.S. HUD Code manufactured home production from 1996 to 2000 was 338,924.167 units per year of all sizes.

7) In the 23 years from 2001 to 2023 the total production was 2,230,400. That is an average of 96,973.91 throughout the fully completed years of 21st century. The current pace of U.S. HUD Code production year to date (YTD) for 2024 is similar to 2021. Per MHARR: "Just-released statistics indicate that HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,509 new homes in June 2024, a 4.1% increase over the 8,169 new HUD Code homes produced in June 2023. Cumulative production for 2024 now totals 51,165 homes, a 16.5% increase over the 43,888 HUD Code homes produced over the same period in 2023." But what that means is that the pace of production growth slowed in June (4.1% growth vs. a 6-month average increase of 16.5%). It is entirely possible that new manufactured home production will finish around or even under 100,000 new homes.

8) From 2007 to 2023 the total U.S. production of HUD Code manufactured housing were only 1,345,974 total single and multi-sectional manufactured homes. The 17-year average from 2007-2023 is thus: 79,174.94 total new manufactured homes of all sizes per year.

9) Let's sum those up that national HUD Code production data for convenience and illustration purposes.

• from 1996-2000 witnessed a total of 2,033,545 new manufactured homes produced in the U.S. That 6-year average for new manufactured home production from 1996 to 2000 was 338,924.167 annually.

• In the 23 years from 2001 to 2023 the total new manufactured home production was 2,230,400. That is an average of 96,973.91 throughout the completed years of 21st century.

• 2007 to 2023 the total production of manufactured homes was only 1,345,974. During those 17-years the average production per year 79,174.94 for the most recent years of the 21st century.

10) Comparing the last 17 years to the last 6 years of the 20th century, new manufactured home production is only about 23.36% of its previous total.

That same report stated the following.

ELS has Patrick Waite, the company’s COO, on the MHI executive committee. ELS has another management team member Ron Bunce on their main board too.

According to page 20 of the ELS investor pitch.

Supply Constrained Asset Class
There has been limited MH development in the U.S. in the past 20 years
Growing demand coupled with almost no new supply is a strategic advantage for ELS
Reasons for the Supply Constraint
• NIMBY (Not in my backyard)
• Restricted zoning & regulations
• Federal planning vs local planning


ELS is bragging to their investors that NIMBYism and a lack of development somehow benefits their investment thesis.

This isn't speculation. These are facts supported by corporate-produced documented evidence.

Not all at MHI feel the same way as ELS does.

Duncan Bates, an MHI member Legacy Housing, has made the following statement about the significance of the problem of zoning/placement barriers.

“Look, the biggest headwind of this – in this entire industry is where to put these [HUD Code manufactured] homes.” - Duncan Bates, President and CEO Legacy Housing (LEGH).

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/legacy-delivered-18-6-return-on-shareholders-equity-over-last-12-months-hiring-retail-mhc-insights-legacy-housing-legh-earnings-call-transcript-q3-20/

MHI member UMH Properties, contrary to ELS, has argued that the industry should be pushing to triple the number of manufactured home communities (sometimes errantly referred to as ‘mobile home parks’ or ‘trailer parks’), as they stated during their earnings call a few weeks ago. Sam and Eugene Landy said their investment history demonstrated the superiority of their method in terms of measurable returns on investment. Note that MHProNews is not a shareholder in any of the companies named.

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/umh-properties-fq4-2023-earnings-call-transcript-sam-landy-expansions-greenfield-development-significantly-outperform-stabilized-properties-eugene-landy-build-100000-communities-plus-mhm/

Returning to the previously cited report:

15) What explains the acceptance of such poor industry performance by MHI's board of directors? The simplest explanation appears to be the obvious one. Some key corporate interests in manufactured housing like and desire the status quo for now. It is not only the obvious thing, but also the clearly stated reasoning offered by ELS, among others.

As reported in a report linked below, Bing’s AI powered Copilot has made a similar observation to what Google’s Gemini did in the report linked above. See the illustration attached.

https://www.manufacturedhomepronews.com/masthead/cats-out-manufactured-housing-institute-housing-coalition-letter-to-congress-fact-check-analysis-reveals-what-mhi-nar-nahb-mba-others-did-didnt-request-ai-affordable-housing-surprises-await/

There is an apparent disconnect between what some MHI members, such as Legacy Housing (LEGH) and UMH Properties (UMH) wants to see in terms of overcoming zoning barriers and the need for more development and the stated desire by several prominent MHI members who have openly stated that the lack of new developing is an advantage – in their own minds – to their business model investment thesis.

This has an obvious impact on the lack of affordable housing in the U.S. MHARR has called for investigations by Congress and by appropriate public officials. The last Congressional hearings looking into these issues was in 2011 and 2012. See examples of those linked below. The statements shown include those made by Edward Hussey for Liberty Homes, John Bostick for Sunshine Homes, and Kevin Clayton for Clayton Homes.

https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/edward-hussey-to-be-clear-madam-chairwoman-there-is-nothing-wrong-with-the-2000-law-the-manufactured-housing-improvement-act-doesnt-need-to-be-amended-the-issue-is-implementation/

https://www.manufacturedhomelivingnews.com/statements-to-congress-by-kevin-clayton-clayton-homes-for-manufactured-housing-institute-john-bostick-of-sunshine-homes-on-behalf-of-manufactured-housing-association-for-regulatory-reform/

About MHARR

The Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform – MHARR – is a Washington, D.C.-based national trade association representing the views and interests of independent producers of federally-regulated manufactured housing.

About MHProNews

MHProNews is approaching the completion of its 14th year of publishing. Known data linked below indicates that MHProNews has long been the largest and most read trade publication serving manufactured housing industry professionals. The online ManufacturedHomeProNews.com (MHProNews.com) publication launched in mid-October 2009. MHProNews is the only known publisher of Daily Business News serving the manufactured home industry. Stock market reports, analysis of publicly traded firms, and expert commentary on legal and other industry issues are part of the array of "MHVille" subjects covered by the publication.

About MHLivingNews

Manufactured Home Living News (MHLivingNews.com) first posted on 05/20/2013. MHLivingNews.com has the largest known collection of manufactured home industry research by third parties. Reports by Freddie Mac, Urban Institute, LendingTree, the federal government, Harvard, the National Association of Realtors, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, and others are among fact- and evidence-based research paired with industry expert analysis.

L. A. "Tony" Kovach
MHProNews.com/MHLivingNews.com
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Interview William "Bill" Matchneer, JD, Prior Program Director, HUD Code Manufactured Housing, previously w/CFPB-was Manufactured Housing Institute member.