2012 Presidential Election Forecast: You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet Compared to What's Coming


February 20, 2012 By Joe Rothstein
Editor, EINNEWS.com

At various times over the past few months the political media pack has obsessed that, in turn, Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, or Newt Gingrich could be the surprise presidential nominee for the Republican Party. There was even a boomlet for Donald Trump.

Given that recent pundit history, and with confidence that I can be as wrong as the next person, I’m not at all reluctant to now make my prediction for how the 2012 race for the White House will finally resolve:

It will be a three-way contest: Christie and Rubio, the Republicans; Obama and Clinton, the Democrats; Bloomberg and Huntsman, the Americans-Elect ticket.

Let’s go through the steps that lead me here.

First, Americans Elect.

This is the most well-funded, highest profile third party challenge since Ross Perot upended presidential politics in 1992. Perot won 19 per cent of the November vote that year.

So far, Americans Elect has been flying under the media radar while qualifying for the November ballot in most states. It already has about half a million people signed up to vote in a June on-line “nominating convention” for President.

No major public figure has yet agreed to run as an Americans Elect candidate, but New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg draws the most speculation. And why not? The $20 million seed money that got Americans Elect started funneled mostly out of his neighborhood, and one of his former paid political guns is highly visible in the effort.

If Bloomberg takes the “nomination” he can pretty much self-fund the campaign with his own billion dollar fortune and the support of mega-donors close to him. Why would he do it? To become a serious third force in American politics and help determine who becomes President in 2013. More on that later.

Next, here’s how I get to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie for the Republicans. It’s not that far-fetched, once you see the possibilities for a deadlocked Republican convention.

Ron Paul’s merry band of Libertarians will surely arrive at Tampa 200 to 300 strong (10 to 15 per cent of the total number of 2286 delegates). Newt Gingrich already has 38 delegates and by the time the southern states have voted he’s also likely to have 200 to 300 or more. Together, Paul and Gingrich should account for 25 to 30 percent of the convention's votes. The result: either Romney or Santorum would need to win roughly two-thirds of the remaining delegate votes to cobble together a majority.

Here’s what makes that exceedingly difficult: Most states are not winner-take-all primaries, which mutes Romney’s money advantage. And states that are, like California and New Jersey, are delegate rich and not particularly in tune with Santorum’s anti-contraception, a-woman’s-place-is-in-the-home thinking.

Ron Paul could join forces with Romney in Tampa, but by then Romney will be such damaged goods that the financial wing of the Republican Party would see him as loser in November. Republican congressional leaders would be in panic that Romney at the top of the ticket would mean political disaster at the bottom. The powers-that-be would almost certainly pull the plug on Romney if they have the chance.

Gingrich and Santorum could pool their votes for one or the other but that likely wouldn’t add up to 50 per cent.

After one or two indecisive but publicly riveting ballots, the New Jersey delegation would abandon Romney and nominate Christie. Would Christie, despite his long stream of “nos” now say “yes?” Certainly. He’d be looking at polls that showed him beating Obama, he’d have promises of an unlimited money belt to pay for the campaign, and he would have avoided the primary election thicket and get to September unscathed.

This would infuriate the extreme right wing of the Republican Party and create some defections. But adding Rubio to the ticket would be consolation while undercutting Obama’s advantage with Latino voters.

Out of the wreckage of the Republican primaries would emerge a ticket that changes the dynamic of the race. Suddenly the Republican Party would look sort of mainstream again. New Jersey would no longer be safe for the Democrats. Florida would no longer in play for them. Republican Senate and Congressional races that looked iffy would be energized. Post GOP convention polls would show Christie leading Obama by 5 to 10 points.

What would the White House do to counter this new threat?

It’s obvious. Biden would leave the ticket with a promise to become secretary of state. Hillary Clinton would replace him as vice president. Would Biden do that? Certainly. He’s a team player and he’s out of a job anyway if Obama loses to Christie. Would Clinton do it? Certainly. She’s also a team player and no woman would pass on the possibility of being the first woman vice president in history. Besides, vice president would be an easier job than the one that’s clearly wearing Clinton out now.

The Democratic base would light up with Hillary on the ticket. Democrats would leave their convention in Charlotte with polls showing an Obama-Christie race now dead even.

And Bloomberg? Most likely, Bloomberg would be at least where Perot was in 1992, with about 20 percent in the polls. But unlike Perot, Bloomberg actually would have a chance to win electoral votes: New York, some of New England, maybe even Florida. Winning a few states in an otherwise close Obama-Christie contest could throw the decision about who will be the next President into the House of Representatives.

Recognizing that possibility, competitive congressional contests all over the U.S. suddenly would become proxies for the presidential battleground.

Implausible? Just go back and review what happened in 2011. Bachmann? Cain? Gingrich? Trump? Compared with that, my forecast seems rather tame, don’t you think?

(Joe Rothstein can be contacted at joe@einnews.com)