What Could Be Waiting for Sharif When He Returns Home? History Suggests an Assassin's Bullet

By Tracy Dove, Ph.D
Editor, The Russia News Service

November 23, 2007

The political situation in Pakistan has disintegrated into chaos, and opposition movements are coalescing around political hopefuls as fast as President Musharraf's hold on power weakens. After having been deported back to Saudi Arabia last month, Nawaz Sharif has surprisingly been granted the right of return, and he is expected back in Pakistan within days. His goal is to register before the November 26 deadline so that he can run for election to Pakistan's parliament and thereby oppose President Musharraf. This is a dangerous plan, and Sharif will have to be exceptionally careful; history shows that dictators don't take kindly to opponents returning from exile.

Benazir Bhutto, who recently returned from exile, knows very well that assassination is not only a possibility, but a likelihood in Pakistani politics. Upon her return to Pakistan last month, two bombs exploded as her vehicle was leaving the airport, killing hundreds of supporters and many of the 150 bodyguards that had formed a human shield around her motorcade. Who the assassins were no one can be sure, but the speculation that Musharraf's henchmen were involved has made its rounds in the streets of Karachi. Since then, Bhutto has been careful to remain behind bulletproof glass while rallying her supporters, and she is aware through personal experience that assassination has been a very effective political tool in her country. Her father and two brothers were killed for their political activity, and Bhutto has so far escaped a similar fate by spending her time in exile. Sharif, too, has lived in exile since being overthrown by Musharraf, making his position more precarious than hers, so it is a distinct possibility that Sharif will be targeted quickly.

A similar parallel to what is happening now in Pakistan can be found in the Philippines of Ferdinand Marcos during the 1970's and 80's. The political situation in that country was not unlike Pakistan's, in that Marcos in 1972 was not allowed to run for another term as president, and only by creating a national emergency could he embed himself in the presidency. His most powerful opponent in Philippine politics at the time was Benigno "Ninoy" Aquino- an eloquent senator who was opposed to the fiscal laxity of the government and the wastefulness of the Marcos' wife- Imelda. During a political rally on August 21, 1971, two grenades went off, killing several people and wounding more than 100. Marcos vowed to find the perpetrators, and in the process many of the opposition politicians were rounded up- and Aquino was one of them.

As a result of the explosion Marcos declared a state of emergency and threw Aquino in jail on trumped-up charges. He spent several years in prison but was still able to rally his supporters from solitary confinement, which vexed Marcos to no end. During his confinement Aquino suffered two heart attacks and mounted a successful hunger strike that won him wide support in the country. Aquino had to go- this much was clear to Marcos- but martyrdom was too risky. While recovering in a military hospital, it was none other than Imelda Marcos who visited him there with a deal. She promised him exit visas to the United States for a bypass operation in return for Aquino's word that he would not talk out against the Marcos regime. Aquino and his wife, Corazon, left with their 5 children and settled in temporarily in Massachusetts, from where he mounted his attacks on Marcos, because "a deal with the devil is no deal at all." But exile was not what Aquino wanted.

By the early 1980's the political situation in the Philippines was deteriorating- not unlike Pakistan today- and Aquino felt the pull of opportunity. By using friends in high places, he was able to return to the country, even though there were rumors that Marcos had put a price on his head. On August 21, 1983, Aquino returned to Manila on a Taiwan Airlines flight- accompanied by journalists and supporters. It was just as he stepped on to the tarmac that he was shot in the back of the head by an assassin who was later traced back to Marcos' Special Forces.

The banality of the assassination suggests that dictators will resort to any means to stay in power. Aquino's death led to the eventual overthrow of the Marcos regime, and it was the US navy that had to evacuate Marcos and his wife from their executive mansion. Sharif's return to Pakistan will be dangerous, and judging by Bhutto's experience, an assassination attempt can't be ruled out. Martyrdom speaks loudly in Islamic countries, and it could be the impetus for an overthrow of Musharraf. But in Pakistan's case, Musharraf won't be able to count on a navy airlift unless he brings his nuclear arsenal with him.

Tracy Dove, editor of The Russia News Service, is a Professor of History and Dean of Summer Programs for the Lessing Institute. He also teaches history at the Anglo-American College in Prague.

See all previous articles by Tracy Dove here.