Gathering storm of major blow-up in the Middle East

Israel bombs Gaza
April 18, 2024

It is generally known to observers of the situation in the Middle East that there are two armed camps watching each other and ready for war if their interests are threatened. One group is allied around Israel, and the other around the Islamic republic of Iran. Israel and Iran are directly involved, while others from a distance can afford to prevaricate while Israel and Iran do not have the privilege of distant observation or armchair strategic  analysis and planning. This fact makes the place dangerous for big power confrontation, with the tendency of being dragged into a conflict without proper consultation and consideration  The issues around which a state of belligerency can be declared is the threat to the existence of Israel on one hand, and on the other hand an existential threat to the Shia regime in Iran . This was not always the case until Iran became a Shia theocracy  in 1979, justifying its own raison detre as the destruction of Israel .

The issues of religion is fundamental to the proper appreciation of the situation of the Middle East. It is home to the three monotheistic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, each laying claim sometimes to the same shrine – of course, with different interpretations. The  economic, strategic and religious importance of the Middle East and the place of Israel in protecting the interests of America and the West generally is intertwined with the defense of Israel  by America and the West, which feels obliged to do so as an obligation to it because of the West’s feeling of  vicarious responsibility for the holocaust during the Second World War. Iran enjoys  support either incipiently or openly  because of its  economic and strategic importance   and relevance  to countries like  Russia, China, Pakistan; and increasingly to India and the Muslim countries of the far east like Indonesia and Malaysia that are increasingly trying to challenge the western political and economic hegemony in the world .The Middle East is a keg of gun powder ready to explode at any time and every war there brings the world near  to a general conflagration because of the various interests ranging from  access to oil, gas military bases,  and because of religious and historical  considerations and aspirations.

What happened on Saturday 13th of April, 2024  when Iran sent 300 waves of drones, cruise missiles and inter-ballistic missiles into Israel has its justification in the Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate building in Damascus  on April 1, leading to the death of important military officers, some of the rank of brigadier-general. This  Israeli attack on a diplomatic building was  in violation of international diplomatic protocol, which sees embassy buildings as sovereign territory of the sending country – in this case, Iran. Up till now Israel has not openly claimed that it was responsible for the attack, presumably because of the embarrassment of violating international law. Israel can, of course, justify the attack on the grounds that Iran military officers and personnel were in Damascus to direct Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack northern Israel in its mutual war against Lebanon, which has led to hundreds of thousands of Lebanese and Israelis fleeing their homes for safety in other parts of their country.

Whether legitimate or not, this was the immediate casus belli for the state of belligerency which the Iranian regime declared that it would retaliate.  In similar situation when the American military killed the Iranian General Soleimani in a targeted drone strike on 3rd January, 2020 in Baghdad, Iran  in retaliation launched missiles against US military bases in Iraq, wounding 110 American troops. In the same vein, It became a matter of honour for Iran to take the step it took in sending the waves of  missiles and drones into Israel.  It appears Iran warned Israel of what was coming at it, so that the damage could be minimised. The arsenals were apparently shut down by a combination of Israeli, American, French, British – and  incredibly, Jordanian forces  for Iranian violation of its airspace – thus leading to no serious damage in Israel, which made President Joe Biden to phone the Israeli Prime Minister Bilhaminu Netanyahu not to embark on military retaliatory action because the United States apparently felt Iran’s attack was for the country’s internal propagandist purpose and not something to seriously hurt Israel. This reading of the Iranian action sounds reasonable, but Israel may not buy the American logic. The fact that the attack on Israel came directly from Iran, from Hezbollah-controlled southern Lebanon and Shia-controlled Iraq, and  from Houthis-controlled Yemen,  and Syria – all Iranian protégés – makes Israel position of being surrounded by enemies on all fronts makes Israeli decision to strike back understandable.

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The confrontations between Iran  and Israel before now was through Iranian-sponsored allies and not by Iran itself. On the other hand, Israel had previously carried the war to Iran by assassinations in Iran  and elsewhere of scientists and military personnel involved in the development of Iranian nuclear program on the grounds that there is no nicety in the war that posed the question of life or death  to Israel, because it justly believes that the Iranian nuclear program was directed at making nuclear weapons aimed at the destruction of Israel. The  prime minister  of Israel has openly declared it that Israel will never allow Iran to make nuclear weapons. How he hopes to do this without a general war in the Middle East or universal nuclear disarmament remains to be seen. This is where we are at the time I am writing this article, but it is clear to me ,that we are at the cusp of a dangerous period in global history because if Israel attacks Iran frontally, Iran has promised to hit back.

Unfortunately, the situation in the Middle East  has deteriorated to this level at a time of elections in the United States. The Jewish lobby in the US is so powerful that it can determine who wins or loses a presidential election. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties are beholden to the Israeli interests who have manipulated, whether rightly or wrongly, to present Israeli interests as those of the US. There are considerable American investments in Israeli economy, but particularly in its scientifically efficient research in medicine and military science and innovation from which the American military industrial complex benefits. It is this complex relationship between Israeli and American education, the military,  banking, finance, Artificial intelligence – the whole gamut  of futuristic development – that elevates the American-Israeli relationship to a situation where the Israeli tail wags the American dog. I think  President Biden did well to warn Israel that America will not join Netanyahu in waging an holy war against Iran, and what America says will be echoed by the leaders of the G-7. Israel may go on a tit-for-tat with assassinating Iranian scientists and military men in and outside Iran, and Iran would reply accordingly.

What this Iranian attack  means is telling Israel  that it is reachable directly from Iran. This introduces a new element to the equation and this will be factored into Israeli determination not to allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state.  One of the results of the situation now in the Middle East is that it frees Israel from any restraint in  its war in Gaza, and the Palestinians would bear the consequence of the whole world being seized with  preventing an Israeli – Iranian war rather than being concerned with what happens to the Palestinians in Raffah where the Israeli  military will mercilessly deal with them with no protest from the rest of the world. If the tragedy in Gaza leads to an Israeli agreement to a two-state solution, the case and cause for war between the Arab states and Israel may be removed for ever and Iran would have been isolated, because it would be a case of being more Catholic than the Pope.

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