Poll: Trump Holds 16-Point Lead over Haley in Republican N.H. Primary Race
01/22/2024
Of 600 likely N.H. Republican primary voters surveyed, 50% endorse Trump as the state GOP’s nominee, while 34% support Haley. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails at 11%, with 4% undecided and 1% responding they plan to vote for another candidate, poll results show. (Production of the poll by CPO occurred prior to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ suspension of his presidential campaign Sunday, Jan. 21.)
In the current poll, findings show Haley enjoys a 61% favorability rating among respondents – just a point behind Trump at 62%. Even so, 51% of respondents said Trump would be more likely to defeat President Joe Biden in the general election, while 31% believe Haley would more likely win that matchup.
Trump voters are also the most stalwart among the candidates’ supporters, as 81% responded they would definitely vote for him, while 19% said they could change their mind. In contrast, 70% of Haley’s supporters signaled they would definitely vote for her, while 30% said they could change their minds. When asked who would win the N.H. Republican primary, 59% responded Trump, and 61% said he would go on to win the Republican nomination for president.
Impact of the 2020 presidential election
The poll also examined attitudes about the last presidential race. When asked whether Trump or Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, 56% of respondents replied Trump was probably (24%) or definitely (32%) the winner, including 64% of self-identified Republicans in the sample.
In addition, 58% of respondents said they strongly (34%) or somewhat (24%) support full pardons for all individuals who participated in the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Forty-two percent of voters responded they strongly (26%) or somewhat (16%) oppose such pardons.
“In the last presidential election in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro voters delegitimized election results and even called for a military intervention. In 2006 and 2012, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador voters in Mexico refused to recognize the election results. Beliefs that contradict available evidence represent a major challenge for contemporary democracies that will likely be exacerbated in this election cycle in the U.S.,” he said.
New Hampshire governor’s race
The poll also surveyed voters’ opinions on the Granite State race for governor. There, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads former N.H. Senate President Chuck Morse in a potential Republican primary race by 32 points, 54% to 22%. One percent of respondents said they plan to vote for another candidate, and 23% are undecided. Ayotte leads across all demographic categories.
The online-based survey was conducted from Saturday, Jan. 6 through Tuesday, Jan. 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.65 percentage points. New Hampshire primary voters begin casting their ballots at midnight on Election Day, Tuesday, Jan. 23.
UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion presents events and polling on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The center is a member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
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