Economy Weekly: Week of November 11, 2019

The Majority Leader’s Office is now sending a weekly e-mail highlighting economic statistics and news that Members can use as they discuss the state of the economy and how House Democrats are working to spur economic growth, support job creation, and raise wages for the people.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: “The middle-class Americans who are the main targets of Trump’s economic pitch aren’t sharing much in the gains of U.S. growth. Worse yet for Trump, wage growth has been slower in the counties he carried in 2016...While the jobless rate continued to fall during Trump’s first two years, median household income, adjusted for inflation, grew at an average annual rate of 1.3%. That’s down from a 4.1% annual rate the previous two years and a 1.8% annual rate during Obama’s entire second term, according to U.S. Census data released last month.” [Bloomberg, 10/31/19]

STAT OF THE WEEK: “In the absence of efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the earth could warm by 2 degrees celsius by 2050, cutting global gross domestic product by 2.5% to 7.5%, Oxford estimates, with the worst affected countries being in Africa and Asia. Longer term, a rise in temperatures of 4 degrees by 2100 could cut output by as much as 30%.” [Bloomberg 11/13/19]

ECONOMIC NEWS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED

• The majority of Americans do not believe they are better off financially under Trump’s Presidency. “Nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are not better off financially than they were when Donald Trump was elected, casting doubt on whether economic expansion and a record bull market will boost the president’s re-election campaign in 2020. According to a poll of likely voters conducted by the Financial Times and the Peter G Peterson Foundation, 31 percent of Americans say they are now worse off financially than they were at the start of Mr. Trump’s presidency. Another 33 percent say there has been no change in their financial position since Mr. Trump’s inauguration in January 2017, while 35 percent say they are better off.” [The Financial Times, 11/04/19]
• Economic growth barely altered in the fourth quarter. “The U.S. economy will barely grow at all in the fourth quarter, if two Federal Reserve gauges that track gross domestic product are correct. With some recent data coming in below expectations, both the Atlanta and New York Fed’s trackers have lowered their expectations for the last three months of 2019.” [CNBC,11/15/19]
• Farm income is falling. “Farm finances deteriorated across a swath of agricultural states during the summer and early fall, despite the Trump administration’s second round of trade aid payments and slightly higher prices, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported Thursday. The report underscores the mounting economic pressure on a key part of President Trump’s constituency as he confronts a reelection campaign and impeachment struggle while undertaking negotiations with Beijing on a partial trade deal that could provide relief from retaliatory tariffs hitting American farmers. The trade talks have bogged down as Trump seeks assurances that Beijing will deliver on commitments on agricultural purchases..” [Bloomberg, 11/14/19]
• Gasoline prices caused inflation for U.S. consumer items.“… Gasoline costs pushed up prices for U.S. consumer goods in October, while new tariffs on imports appeared to have little effect on what Americans paid for clothing and household furnishings. The consumer-price index…rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in October from the previous month, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Core prices, excluding often volatile food and energy categories, were up 0.2%.” [WSJ, 11/30/19]