Humanity Threatened With Extinction (See story in business section page 32)
September 1, 2023
The movie “Oppenheimer” is a stark reminder that the scientists who created the first nuclear weapons almost immediately afterward turned to the U.S. government and essentially said, “do something to stop us from killing again.”
A similar drama is unfolding now with respect to artificial intelligence. Thousands of scientists, technicians and others connected with AI have signed their names to the following open letter:*
“Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?
“Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable. This confidence must be well justified and increase with the magnitude of a system's potential effects.
“OpenAI's recent statement regarding artificial general intelligence (at https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond), states that "At some point, it may be important to get independent review before starting to train future systems, and for the most advanced efforts to agree to limit the rate of growth of compute used for creating new models." We agree. That point is now.
“Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. This pause should be public and verifiable, and include all key actors. If such a pause cannot be enacted quickly, governments should step in and institute a moratorium.”
*(I’ve edited the letter down for length, but I’ve retained all the italics, bold face and underlining the signers added for emphasis. The full letter is here: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
We’re developing something that will obsolete truth, threaten ALL jobs, and “risk loss of control of our civilization.” The signers of the letter are the very people engaged in developing and deploying that “something”! How can we interpret this remarkable letter other than a scream for help?
It seems to me questions about imminent “loss of control of our civilization” merited a place in the Republican TV debate. And maybe how to manage AI should bump transgender, naughty books and Hunter Biden’s laptop for a higher place on the congressional agenda. And, hey, news editors, how about moving them up a few notches in your editorial judgment of what’s important?
The only front page news I can recall coming out of the White House Office of Science and Technology recently was when the top adviser resigned after being accused of bullying subordinates. There’s also a Council of White House Science and Technology Advisors. Google it and you find little but articles about who serves on the Council. Seven thousand+ media people are accredited to write, report and edit in Washington. How many are on the extinction-of-civilization beat?
AI developers are terrified that they may be unleashing something that will radically change or end humanity. They are begging those in power to pay attention. Why don’t those developers just pull the plug themselves? Capitalism’s market and competitive forces are too strong to stop a few commercially powerful companies from racing like lemmings to a cliff they all know lies not far ahead.
My most recent novel, “The Moment of Menace,” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BHTRJQHX?ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_TXV69WSW4YESCXWKGNQ6) is centered on the myriad existential threats facing humanity. AI, yes. But also genetic editing, climate change, uncontrollable pandemics and that golden oldie, nuclear annihilation.
My book is fiction, but the threats are not. A reordering of priorities is required by leaders who can make a difference and the media that should prod them to do it.
Your comments are invited and encouraged.
A similar drama is unfolding now with respect to artificial intelligence. Thousands of scientists, technicians and others connected with AI have signed their names to the following open letter:*
“Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk loss of control of our civilization?
“Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks will be manageable. This confidence must be well justified and increase with the magnitude of a system's potential effects.
“OpenAI's recent statement regarding artificial general intelligence (at https://openai.com/blog/planning-for-agi-and-beyond), states that "At some point, it may be important to get independent review before starting to train future systems, and for the most advanced efforts to agree to limit the rate of growth of compute used for creating new models." We agree. That point is now.
“Therefore, we call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. This pause should be public and verifiable, and include all key actors. If such a pause cannot be enacted quickly, governments should step in and institute a moratorium.”
*(I’ve edited the letter down for length, but I’ve retained all the italics, bold face and underlining the signers added for emphasis. The full letter is here: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
We’re developing something that will obsolete truth, threaten ALL jobs, and “risk loss of control of our civilization.” The signers of the letter are the very people engaged in developing and deploying that “something”! How can we interpret this remarkable letter other than a scream for help?
It seems to me questions about imminent “loss of control of our civilization” merited a place in the Republican TV debate. And maybe how to manage AI should bump transgender, naughty books and Hunter Biden’s laptop for a higher place on the congressional agenda. And, hey, news editors, how about moving them up a few notches in your editorial judgment of what’s important?
The only front page news I can recall coming out of the White House Office of Science and Technology recently was when the top adviser resigned after being accused of bullying subordinates. There’s also a Council of White House Science and Technology Advisors. Google it and you find little but articles about who serves on the Council. Seven thousand+ media people are accredited to write, report and edit in Washington. How many are on the extinction-of-civilization beat?
AI developers are terrified that they may be unleashing something that will radically change or end humanity. They are begging those in power to pay attention. Why don’t those developers just pull the plug themselves? Capitalism’s market and competitive forces are too strong to stop a few commercially powerful companies from racing like lemmings to a cliff they all know lies not far ahead.
My most recent novel, “The Moment of Menace,” (https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BHTRJQHX?ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_TXV69WSW4YESCXWKGNQ6) is centered on the myriad existential threats facing humanity. AI, yes. But also genetic editing, climate change, uncontrollable pandemics and that golden oldie, nuclear annihilation.
My book is fiction, but the threats are not. A reordering of priorities is required by leaders who can make a difference and the media that should prod them to do it.
Your comments are invited and encouraged.
Joe Rothstein is a political strategist and media producer who worked in more than 200 campaigns for political office and political causes. He also has served as editor of the Anchorage Daily News and as an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. He has a master's degree in journalism from UCLA. Mr. Rothstein is the author of award-winning political thrillers, The Latina President and the Conspiracy to Destroy Her, The Salvation Project, and The Moment of Menace. For more information, please visit his website at https://www.joerothstein.net/.
