Will it be Biden, Trump, or…
July 31, 2023
Will It Be Biden, Trump or ???
I get asked these questions a lot. Because I worked for decades at the center of U.S. politics, many of my friends think I should have special insight about the presidential campaign.
I’d be happy to give an opinion if I had the answers to a few questions myself.
Will Biden remain in good health? It’s a reasonable question given his age. Will Trump? It’s also a reasonable question, since Trump will be 78 on election day, 2024, and given his diet of Big Macs and such, he’s a walking coronary waiting to happen.
Will Liz Cheney run as an independent to split the Republican vote?
Will No Labels run a third party candidate like Joe Manchin?
Black leader Cornell West already has announced he will run as the nominee of the People’s Party. Will he be on the ballot everywhere? Anywhere? So far he poses the greatest risk to a Biden win.
The Supreme Court has just ruled on cases that should help Democrats. Will Republican legislatures weigh in to blunt that advantage?
Will Robert Kennedy Jr. do well enough in New Hampshire to embarrass Biden, the way Eugene McCarthy did to LBJ and upend the campaign?
Will Trump be convicted in any or all of the forthcoming criminal trials? Will it finally matter to Republican voters?
Will the Republican Congress’s investigation of Hunter Biden create serious questions about the Biden family’s financial activities? Enough to cost him voting support? Or attract a strong primary election challenger?
Will the war in Ukraine end? How? And will it help or hurt Biden’s political fortunes?
How about climate change? Floods? Fires and their oppressive smoke? Hurricanes and tornados? Forced migrations of millions and resulting tensions? All now immediate, not distant problems. Political problems, too.
Will the Fed cause a recession? Will inflation still be a kitchen table issue?
The “undercard” of Senate and House candidates still hasn’t been filled. Those races also affect voter turnout. Will they help Democrats or Republicans? And in which states?
Republicans have been making a major effort to influence outcomes by placing their supporters in key jobs that manage the voting, from secretary of state to poll workers. Will it make a difference?
And finally, who will run the best campaign? I helped with strategy and management of more than 200 of them. Strategy, management and candidate performance matters. A lot.
Once I have the answers to all these questions, I’ll be happy to give an opinion on the potential result.
Until then, I’ll worry about what’s ahead just like most everyone else I know.
When you hear confident predictions from TV talking heads or print pundits, remember this: at this time in prior election cycles, few would have put their bets on Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Obama or Trump. In this current environment of political uncertainty, why would 2024’s outcome be any more foreseeable?
I get asked these questions a lot. Because I worked for decades at the center of U.S. politics, many of my friends think I should have special insight about the presidential campaign.
I’d be happy to give an opinion if I had the answers to a few questions myself.
Will Biden remain in good health? It’s a reasonable question given his age. Will Trump? It’s also a reasonable question, since Trump will be 78 on election day, 2024, and given his diet of Big Macs and such, he’s a walking coronary waiting to happen.
Will Liz Cheney run as an independent to split the Republican vote?
Will No Labels run a third party candidate like Joe Manchin?
Black leader Cornell West already has announced he will run as the nominee of the People’s Party. Will he be on the ballot everywhere? Anywhere? So far he poses the greatest risk to a Biden win.
The Supreme Court has just ruled on cases that should help Democrats. Will Republican legislatures weigh in to blunt that advantage?
Will Robert Kennedy Jr. do well enough in New Hampshire to embarrass Biden, the way Eugene McCarthy did to LBJ and upend the campaign?
Will Trump be convicted in any or all of the forthcoming criminal trials? Will it finally matter to Republican voters?
Will the Republican Congress’s investigation of Hunter Biden create serious questions about the Biden family’s financial activities? Enough to cost him voting support? Or attract a strong primary election challenger?
Will the war in Ukraine end? How? And will it help or hurt Biden’s political fortunes?
How about climate change? Floods? Fires and their oppressive smoke? Hurricanes and tornados? Forced migrations of millions and resulting tensions? All now immediate, not distant problems. Political problems, too.
Will the Fed cause a recession? Will inflation still be a kitchen table issue?
The “undercard” of Senate and House candidates still hasn’t been filled. Those races also affect voter turnout. Will they help Democrats or Republicans? And in which states?
Republicans have been making a major effort to influence outcomes by placing their supporters in key jobs that manage the voting, from secretary of state to poll workers. Will it make a difference?
And finally, who will run the best campaign? I helped with strategy and management of more than 200 of them. Strategy, management and candidate performance matters. A lot.
Once I have the answers to all these questions, I’ll be happy to give an opinion on the potential result.
Until then, I’ll worry about what’s ahead just like most everyone else I know.
When you hear confident predictions from TV talking heads or print pundits, remember this: at this time in prior election cycles, few would have put their bets on Carter, Reagan, Clinton, Obama or Trump. In this current environment of political uncertainty, why would 2024’s outcome be any more foreseeable?
Joe Rothstein is a political strategist and media producer who worked in more than 200 campaigns for political office and political causes. He also has served as editor of the Anchorage Daily News and as an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. He has a master's degree in journalism from UCLA. Mr. Rothstein is the author of award-winning political thrillers, The Latina President and the Conspiracy to Destroy Her, The Salvation Project, and The Moment of Menace. For more information, please visit his website at https://www.joerothstein.net/.
