Likely New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary voters appear to desire an electable candidate rather than one that conforms to their policy preferences. This would explain why Michelle Obama, when posed as an option, easily overtakes the front-runners, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, in the latest Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll.
The former first lady is near 60% among voters who have a “very favorable” view of her. While Warren and Biden, respectively, are near 50% and 40%. Accordingly, she polls at 26% vs. 20%, each, for Biden and Warren in terms voting preference. As with Biden’s initially strong showing earlier this campaign season, Democratic primary voters are exhibiting a strong tendency to bank on the “Obama” brand.
Significantly, 70% of Democratic primary voters polled support the presidential impeachment inquiry and support removing President Trump from office for soliciting Ukrainian help in investigating the Bidens for corruption.
The response the former first lady’s name elicits among those polled combined with their palpable hostility to the incumbent, in the end, supports the conventional wisdom about presidential primaries: Primary candidates tack left (if Democrats) or right (if Republicans) to appeal to the party’s ideological base but then can safely return to the center during the general election campaign.
Whomever wins the Democratic primary will not be pushing nearly as hard as they are now for wealth taxes, single payer health care, abolishing private health insurance, open borders, comprehensive forgiveness of student loan debt, and even presidential impeachment. Such ideological purity is a loser for Democrats who have their eyes on ousting Trump from office. These poll numbers demonstrate that. They exhibit a tendency among Democratic primary voters to favor the status quo and play it safe with a name brand. This practical embrace of the “lesser of two evils” is what keeps former President Barack Obama the current standard bearer of the Democratic Party this primary season.
Frank Cohen is an associate professor of political science at Franklin Pierce University.
