Among Mass. independent voters, the economy is a high hurdle for Biden

A new state poll by Suffolk University and The Boston Globe offers a look at how independents, who occupy a wide middle lane among Massachusetts voters, are thinking about their financial futures compared with voters registered with the two major parties.

While the Bay State has long been an outlier in national politics — Google “Don’t Blame Me, I’m From Massachusetts” — responses from independents here may help understand the views of a segment of moderate voters in swing states who are expected to be pivotal in the November presidential election.

The news: Independents are less likely to share Democrats’ rosy take on the state’s economy, but they are nowhere near as gloomy as Republicans.

In the poll, 43 percent of independents said the local economy was in “excellent” or “good” shape. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats responded “excellent” or “good,” while just 17 percent of GOP voters agreed with that assessment.

Digging deeper: All three groups said inflation was their most pressing economic issue, but independents and Republicans were noticeably more focused on prices than Democrats.

Among independents, 53 percent said inflation was their biggest economic worry, while it topped the list for 73 percent GOP respondents. Thirty-three percent of Democrats called inflation their prime economic concern, only slightly more than those who chose housing costs.

Why it matters: Inflation has put President Biden on the defensive on the campaign trail.

Soaring prices in 2021 and 2022 left goods and services painfully expensive, undercutting positive economic fundamentals — including expanding growth, low unemployment, and rising wages — that the president would like voters to give him credit for. In national polls, more voters say they have more confidence in Donald Trump’s ability to manage the economy.

The fact that inflation cooled significantly last year doesn’t seem to be helping Biden much because the tabs for groceries and gasoline still take a bigger bite out of household paychecks than they did before the pandemic.

But: The economy is vying with immigration and protecting democracy from political extremism as the most important issue for voters, in Massachusetts and nationally. Tellingly, the issues vary in importance for each voting group.

According to the Suffolk/Globe poll, 44 percent of Republicans said immigration/border security was their top concern, followed by the economy at 33 percent and the future of American democracy at 13 percent.

In contrast, 41 percent of Democrats said the future of American democracy was their paramount issue, ahead of abortion, 13 percent, and the economy, 10 percent. (Only 7 percent of Democrats said immigration was their top issue.)

But the center is where national elections are won or lost. And for Massachusetts independents, no one issue is an outsize concern.

One in four independents said their top worry was protecting democracy, matching the percentage who cited immigration. The economy was the most important issue for 18 percent of independents.

And when it came to backing a candidate for president, unenrolled voters went with Biden over Trump, 43 percent to 24 percent. Among all voters, the poll had Biden beating Trump 52 percent to 22 percent.

Final thought: Independents in true-blue Massachusetts skew more liberal than those in purple states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada that could well decide the election. Our state is one of the wealthiest in the country, which means inflation isn’t quite the scourge it is elsewhere.

Biden won in 2020 by positioning himself as the candidate of the middle. But the results of the Suffolk/Globe poll suggest that even among moderates, the economy is an issue that will make his 2024 campaign all the more challenging.

Larry Edelman can be reached at larry.edelman@globe.com.