The Gloves Are Almost Off in Campaign 2024 – “The Sunday Political Brunch”- April 21, 2024

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Mark Curtis, Guest MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump, CNN

Jury selection is done and as we begin the new week, we are watching as former President Donald Trump goes on trial. But many other related and unrelated political events are swirling amongst a pool of perspective sharks. There are just over six months until election day; let’s “brunch” on that this week!

 

“Hush! It’s a Trump Trial!” – Late Thursday, the judge announced that a 12-member jury had been seated in the so-called “hush money” trial of former President Donald Trump. As the story goes, adult film star Stormy Daniels claims an affair with Mr. Trump during the 2016 campaign. So, in order to buy her silence, Trump had his then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, pay a six-figure check to Ms. Daniels to “hush” her up! However, the money came from a Trump business ledger with a line item for “legal expenses,” which raises lots of red flags, including legality.

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“A Twist on an Old Joke” – “Have you heard this one? A priest, a rabbi and a minister walk into a bar!” It’s been the premise of many jokes, with twists, over many decades. So, I had to chuckle when I saw a CNN Breaking News push alert that said, “An oncology nurse, a schoolteacher, and software engineer are among the first jurors in Trump’s trial.” As with the joke, I pictured all three walking into a bar together! They’ll probably need more than a few drinks by the time this is all over.

 

“Jury Selection” – I have covered more than one-hundred murder trials, and other criminal and civil cases in my career, at the local state and federal level. To me, the most fascinating aspect is jury selection, or a process known as “voir dire” which is French for “to speak the truth.” To the untrained eye, you’d think it would be impossible to select a neutral jury for someone as well-known and as verbose as Donald Trump.

 

“People Want to be Fair” -- It always surprised me how many people in a jury pool say things such as, “I don’t really watch the news much,” or “I remember when Donald Trump played a professional wrestler.” My point is that most people aren’t the political junkie and the news junkie that I am, nor for that matter are many of my colleagues. People are detached, they have their own lives, and jobs and families to be focused on. So, it is possible to find jurors who will show up neutral, and then weigh the evidence that is set in their laps. I trust the system and always have. Potential jurors often say things such as, “I’m willing to listen to both sides and weigh the evidence.” There is an innate sense of fairness in the average person, much more than you might think. It’s not perfect, nor guaranteed, but most people want to be fair.

 

“Impeachment Fails; Issue Won’t Die” – To no one’s surprise, the Republican-led House impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas this past week. Then, to no one’s surprise, the Democrat-led Senate voted not to hold trials on either article of impeachment. It was “tit for tat,” so why did they do it? Political imagery! Now campaign ads stressing images of illegal border crossings in the fall, will also show images of the Senate shutting down the impeachment of the person charged with fixing the immigration problem. This was all just a giant photo op!

 

“The Kennedy Crossfire” – On Thursday, about 15 members of the Kennedy political family gathered to endorse President Joe Biden for reelection. This despite the fact that Robert F. “Bobby” Kennedy, Jr., is running as an independent in this race. Kennedy “fishes” in various ponds. He is probably the most successful environmental attorney in America and the left loves him for that. On the other hand, he’s far to the right of most right-wing anti-vaccination groups. So, he can poll from both sides and could be a spoiler in this race!

 

“What Say the Polls?” – The latest Real Clear Politics Composite Poll has 43 percent Trump, 41 percent Biden, to 8 percent Kennedy. Three well-respected polls have Kennedy as high as 11 percent. “Bobby” Kennedy will not be our next president, but he could be the spoiler who determines the outcome. The latest Real Clear Politics Composite poll in just a two-person race has 44.6 percent for Trump, to 44.2 percent for Biden, a statistical dead heat. This race is dead even in a two-man contest, but it’s clear Kennedy could tip the race to Trump. Does he want that on his resume, or as part of the Kennedy family legacy? For now, it appears he’s willing to bolt the family tide. In my interview with him, I got the sense he’s willing to, “row his own boat” despite family pressures.

 

“Israel Iran, Relative Calm” – One week after a failed massive drone and rocket attack from Iran aimed at Israel, there was one, lone Israel missed lobbed into Iran, reportedly doing little damage. This conflict threatens to erupt into a crisis at any moment, and how the U.S. responds could have consequences for campaign 2024. Stay tuned!

 

“’Trans’port Me Out of Here.” – I have watched every political election since 1964 and have covered every election cycle since 1978. I am seeing a phenomenon this year that I have never seen before. An issue that affects a tiny measure of the population becomes the number one issue. I bring you to the race for West Virginia Governor. The Republican primary features current Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, current Secretary of State Mac Warner, car dealer Chris Miller (son of Rep. Carol Miller (R) West Virginia, and former Delegate Moore Capito, son of U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia. So, what’s the number one issue in the race? Transgender people!

 

“Why?” – The most recent study of UCLA Law’s The Williams Institute says just .68 percent of youth in West Virginia identify as transgender or transsexual. That’s less than one percent. West Virginia even passed a state law last year saying students could only compete on sports teams of their gender birth, which was just overturned by the 4th District. U.S. Court of Appeals in Richmond, VA. But the anti-trans ads just keep coming, including car dealer Chris Miller dressing as a woman in some of his parody auto ads - yes, in full wig and dress!!! So, polls tell us 58 percent of West Virginia voters think the economy is the top issue, yet an issue that affects less than one percent of the population dominates the campaign. It’s hard to fathom. But I predict this same issue will crop up large in other states, too.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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