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Crossover voters help sway Pennsylvania's pivotal U.S. Senate race

Ryan Deto
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AP
This combination of file photos shows Democratic Senate candidate, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, left, and Republican Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022 photos.
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Ryan Deto | Tribune-Review
Steve Miller, a Republican from Allegheny County, at a rally for Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman in Pittsburgh on Oct. 1, 2022

With Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz remaining razor close heading into Election Day, the campaigns are looking for votes wherever they can find them.

And that includes ones from voters in opposing political parties.

Voters who are registered with one political party but vote for a candidate in another are known as crossover voters. With partisanship increasing over the years, there appear to be fewer crossover voters than in the past, but they still matter in Pennsylvania, said Rick Stafford, professor of public policy at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College.

“If everyone voted for their party and independents split, then the outcome is over,” said Stafford, noting there are about 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. “Crossovers matter.”

So, which candidate has more? Has Oz attracted the necessary support of Democrat in places such as rural Southwestern Pennsylvania to put him over the top? Or has Fetterman convinced enough Republicans to enable him to flip the Senate seat from red to blue?

Republicans for Fetterman

According to polls, typically more than 85% of Republicans and Democrats are supporting their own party’s candidate in the Senate race.

So there is just a small pool to take from in terms of crossover voters.

One of those is Steve Miller, an Allegheny County Republican who runs Wellness for Veterans, a nonprofit based in Blairsville. He has become a volunteer for the Fetterman campaign.

Miller spoke to the Tribune-Review on Oct. 1 at a rally for Fetterman in Pittsburgh’s Strip District. He said he voted for Republicans Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania’s 2010 Senate race and Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race, before opting for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. He said he also has worked with local GOP lawmakers Natalie Mihalek and Devlin Robinson, both of whom are veterans.

He said he admires Ronald Reagan and that Reagan gave him his Purple Heart award.

Miller said he reached out to the Oz campaign to talk about his organization. He said they gave him five minutes and he never heard back from them.

When he contacted Fetterman’s campaign, Fetterman spoke with Miller for 25 minutes and the campaign reached back out and has been in constant communication.

“It is not a red or blue issue,” Miller said about caring for veterans. “It is a red, white and blue issue.”

He said he believes Fetterman will support veterans issues more than Oz.

The Fetterman campaign has been highlighting “Republicans for Fetterman” in ads placed on television and online.

Colleen Bixler, of New Kensington, is one Republican featured in Fetterman ads.

Bixler, 48, became a Republican in 2006 and said she leans more on the moderate side. She said she likes politicians who don’t fit the typical political mold, which is how Fetterman got her attention during his 2016 Senate run, and also is what led her to vote for Trump that year.

Her decision to support Fetterman this year was due to a myriad of factors, including Fetterman’s background of moving to Braddock and working to improve it. She thinks Oz moved to the state just to run for Senate.

Bixler also criticized Trump’s handling of the pandemic.

“I started voting more for Democrats,” she said following Republicans’ pandemic response. “It’s time to put big boy pants on and take care of the country. … Where is the proof that Oz actually wants to live here and make it better like Fetterman has?”

Stafford said it’s a smart move politically to highlight crossover support, and that if Fetterman can pull enough Republicans over to his side, it will make it difficult on Oz, given there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pa.

“Fetterman is out there touting that, and he should be, and so should Oz,” said Stafford.

Democrats for Oz

The Oz campaign has welcomed the support of Democrats, and Oz himself has spoken about garnering Democratic votes at rallies, but the campaign isn’t highlighting any “Democrats for Oz.”

Requests to the Oz campaign asking to talk to Democratic voters who support his campaign went unanswered.

However, former Philadelphia Deputy Mayor Tom Knox, a Democrat, told Townhall last month that he is supporting Oz because of Fetterman’s criminal justice policies. Knox said he opposes Fetterman’s votes on the state’s Board of Pardons and his support for safe-injection sites for drug users.

“I am sad to say, as a resident of Philadelphia, that our city has become increasingly dangerous, and John Fetterman’s policies on crime will make things much worse,” he said.

On a recent Fox News panel, Kathleen Di Carluccio, a Democrat from Lackawanna County, said she was voting for Oz because she doesn’t think Fetterman is physically fit to run for Senate. Fetterman suffered a stroke in May, which has caused temporary auditory processing issues. He struggled with answers during a televised debate. Fetterman’s doctors have said he is recovering well and is healthy enough to serve in Congress.

“The people in his inner circle, his family, people around him, should never have let that man even get close to a debate stage, let alone run for the Senate,” she said during a late October panel.

Di Carluccio also cited Fetterman’s support of safe-injection sites and votes on the pardon board. According to her social media, Di Carluccio has posted support for Trump on multiple occasions, including a meme shared in February 2021.

Oz isn’t highlighting these Democrats in ads, but he might not need as much marketing to attract some Democrats to vote for him.

Some counties, particularly in Southwestern Pennsylvania, regularly provide a larger number of votes for Republicans than they have Republicans registered there. For example, Beaver County has more registered Democrats than Republicans, but Trump won there by more than 17 percentage points in 2020.

It’s likely that many rural, Southwestern Pennsylvania Democrats vote for Oz despite their voter registration.

Turnout also key

Just as important as crossover voters is turnout among each party’s registered voters, Stafford said. If each candidate is taking an equal amount of crossover voters away from the other candidate, then getting more of your own party’s voters to go to the polls will determine the winner.

“You cannot talk about just crossover voters without talking about what the turnout will be,” said Stafford.

According to a recent Marist poll, both Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania are extremely likely to vote in the midterms, indicating a high turnout race. About 97% of Democrat respondents said they would definitely or likely vote compared with about 95% of Republicans.

Stafford said there is too much uncertainty among polls to confidently declare a winner. Polls have missed important sections of the electorate before, and he said the Senate race will be extremely close.

“It just isn’t clear, we just don’t have clarity,” he said. “The race isn’t over.”

Ryan Deto is a TribLive reporter covering politics, Pittsburgh and Allegheny County news. A native of California’s Bay Area, he joined the Trib in 2022 after spending more than six years covering Pittsburgh at the Pittsburgh City Paper, including serving as managing editor. He can be reached at rdeto@triblive.com.

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