It has been a long time since an incumbent governor was defeated in a primary.
And it never happened to a Republican, but was only successful when Democrats were involved.
Which is just one reason why former state Rep. Geoff Diehl of Whitman has his work cut out for him if he thinks he can beat incumbent Gov. Charlie Baker in the 2022 Republican primary.
If Baker decides to seek a third term, he not only is a heavy favorite to beat back a Diehl challenge, but to go on and defeat any of the Democrats currently running against him.
What Diehl is attempting to do is difficult, if not impossible.
The last — and only — time a serious Republican challenged an incumbent Republican governor was in 1998. That was when state Treasurer Joe Malone ran against acting Gov. Paul Cellucci. Malone lost.
Cellucci, who became acting governor after Gov. William Weld resigned, handily defeated Malone in the GOP primary and then went on to beat Democrat Scott Harshbarger in the November election.
Diehl, the GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 — who was defeated by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren — now risks becoming the new Joe Malone.
Historically, toppling a governor of your own party is something the Democrats have done to one another over the years — but not Republicans.
Lt. Gov. Frank Bellotti, now 98, did it to fellow Democrat Gov. Endicott Peabody in the 1964 Democratic primary, only to lose in November to Republican John Volpe.
Former Massport Executive Director Edward King, a conservative Democrat — fired from his post by newly elected liberal Gov. Michael Dukakis — ran against Dukakis in the 1978 Democrat primary and beat him. It was a major upset. King then defeated Republican Frank Hatch in the November election.
Four years later a wiser Dukakis came back and defeated King in the bitterly contested 1982 Democrat primary to regain the Democrat nomination. Dukakis then beat Republican John Sears in November.
Dukakis was re-elected to a third term in 1986 after which he ran unsuccessfully for president in 1988, finally leaving the governor’s office in 1990.
Unlike in the case of Frank Bellotti, who later became attorney general, both King and Dukakis were able to defeat their Republican opponents.
If Diehl is to have any shot at upsetting Baker, he would be wise to study the 1974 Ed King primary campaign against Dukakis, where you had a center right Democratic challenger take on a leftist Democrat governor.
In this campaign Diehl, whose rugged looks resemble the demeanor of the late Ed King — who played in the NFL– is the center right Republican challenging a liberal, center-left incumbent who governs much the way Dukakis did.
Diehl need not run away from former President Donald Trump, who he supported in the past. While currently distancing himself from Trump’s bombastic personality, he could embrace the former president’s accomplishments. You don’t have to like the man to like his policies.
No matter what questions you threw at him in that 1978 campaign, Ed King responded with several hard-hitting positions that were opposite to what Dukakis stood for, and the moderates and conservatives in the Democratic Party bought into it.
King was for the death penalty and mandatory sentences for drug dealers. He was pro-cop. He was pro-life. He was for cutting taxes and creating jobs. He was for offshore drilling and raising the drinking age from 18 to 21.
King pounded away at these issues for months. It worked.
The issues are different now. But Diehl could pick key issues and pound away at them the way King did.
He could center his campaign on fighting soaring crime, and hold Baker responsible for not dealing with it.
He could call for an all-out war on gang violence and street crime, hire Bill Bratton and initiate his successful, “broken windows,” police policy; earmark state funds for defunded police departments, hire more cops, back them up, and raise police salaries; call for stiffer prison sentences; appoint tougher judges; reorganize and revitalize the scandal-ridden Massachusetts State Police.
There are 4.7 million registered voters in Massachusetts, 1.4 million are Democrats, and 2.7 million are independents who do not regularly vote in primaries. There are just 469,000 Republicans, or only 9.7% of the electorate.
Given a moderate Republican primary turnout, a candidate with a mere 160,000 votes could win the GOP nomination.
Peter Lucas is a veteran Massachusetts political reporter and columnist.
