POLITICO Playbook: Progressives suffer their first big blow of the Biden presidency

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DRIVING THE DAY

For progressives who care about income inequality above all else, the minimum wage hits a sweet spot that few other policies do: It is both highly popular and highly redistributive.

In Florida last year, a $15 minimum wage passed with 61% of the vote as DONALD TRUMP cruised to victory there. Hiking the minimum wage to $15 by 2025 and indexing it to inflation would redistribute an enormous amount of income from the richest to the poorest Americans, according to the CBO.

That makes the Senate parliamentarian’s decision to exclude the proposal from President JOE BIDEN’S American Rescue Plan because it doesn’t meet the stringent budgetary requirements of reconciliation an especially tough blow for progressives — even as it may help Biden pass his Covid relief bill. But the left is not giving up.

Here are the possible paths forward for the policy, from least likely to most likely:

— FIRE THE PARLIAMENTARIAN. In 2001, when Senate Republicans didn’t get the reconciliation rulings they liked, they replaced him with a more pliable procedural referee.

Who’s in favor: Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.), who tweeted, “Replace the parliamentarian. What’s a Democratic majority if we can’t pass our priority bills? This is unacceptable.”

Who’s opposed: everyone to the right of the Squad.

— OVERRULE THE PARLIAMENTARIAN. That’s what some Republicans proposed in 2017 when they were frustrated with the parliamentarian for nixing items from Trump’s Obamacare repeal bill, which went through reconciliation. Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) argued that the VP, who is also the president of the Senate, could ignore the merely “advisory” opinions of the parliamentarian and decide for himself what policies were kosher under reconciliation.

Who’s in favor: Procedural radicals like Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), head of the House Progressive Caucus, who find the Senate’s rules absurd. Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.): “I’m sorry — an unelected parliamentarian does not get to deprive 32 million Americans the raise they deserve. This is an advisory, not a ruling. VP Harris needs to disregard and rule a $15 minimum wage in order.” (See below for more.)

Who’s opposed: White House chief of staff RON KLAIN and Biden. Klain nixed the idea in an interview on MSNBC on Wednesday night, and on Thursday the White House released a statement saying Biden “respects the parliamentarian’s decision and the Senate’s process.”

— PASS A STAND-ALONE MINIMUM WAGE BILL that can get 60 votes in the Senate.

Who’s in favor: the White House, which has been telegraphing for weeks that the minimum wage would not survive reconciliation. Biden said in a recent interview with CBS that he would pursue “a separate negotiation on minimum wage.” A group of Republicans recently introduced a bill that would increase the minimum wage to $10, index it to inflation and require the use of E-verify, the federal system that prevents employers from hiring undocumented immigrants.

Could there be a compromise between this proposal and the clean $15 hike Biden proposed? It seems safe to bet against 10 Republicans voting for any Biden priority. But indexing for inflation would be a major progressive victory that could be worth the longer phase-in.

Who’s opposed: The proposal received a chilly reception from progressives who see it as anti-immigrant.

— PASS A BACKDOOR MINIMUM WAGE HIKE that is reconciliation-compliant. Senate progressives were ready with a Plan B when the parliamentarian’s ruling came down Thursday night: an amendment that would penalize big companies that don’t pay a $15 minimum wage and offer small businesses incentives to do so.

Who’s in favor: Top Senate progressives like RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii) and BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.), who warned in a statement Thursday night, “That amendment must be included in this reconciliation bill.”

Who’s opposed: unclear, but based on their previous positions on the issue we would expect centrists like Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), who opposed a hike to $15, to be skeptical of penalizing companies who don’t pay $15 an hour.

Minimum wage wrap-up: POLITICO, WaPo, WSJ, NYT, AP, CNN

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — LAURA BARRÓN-LÓPEZ emails: A coalition of progressive, labor and social justice advocacy groups have asked for meetings with both VP KAMALA HARRIS’ office and the White House to urge the administration to overrule the parliamentarian — through Harris’ powers as president of the Senate — and include the $15 minimum wage hike in the coronavirus relief package. The National Black Women’s Roundtable, She the People, the Urban League, Women’s March, Center for Popular Democracy and more penned a letter to the White House pressing Biden and Harris on the issue. Read the letter here

“AIMEE ALLISON, president and founder of She the People, which backs women of color in politics, said ‘a return to civility and decency in politics isn’t just about process but also policy.’ She added: ‘Women of color call on the Biden-Harris administration to use the political power they now have to make the promise of $15 an hour a reality.’”

A VP PORTFOLIO — Harris has faced nagging questions since the campaign about what her portfolio as VP would be, beyond the “last person in the room on everything” assurance from the boss.

The last few weeks have started to provide at least a partial answer to those watching closely: Harris is taking on a growing role in Biden’s foreign policy. She called the director-general of the World Health Organization the day after the inauguration. Since then, she’s had calls with Canadian PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU and French President EMMANUEL MACRON, given a speech at the State Department and on Tuesday participated in the first bilateral meeting of the new administration between the U.S. and Canada. Harris has also had weekly lunches with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN.

Eugene and Natasha Bertrand dig into the moves and why world leaders and dignitaries are clamoring to start building relationships with Harris.

WATCH: McCarthy and Cheney spar over Trump’s CPAC speech

In this week’s Playbook Playback, EUGENE is joined by RYAN HEATH. The pair analyze the tense exchange between House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY and Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.) when asked if Trump should be speaking at CPAC this Sunday. They also examine USPS’ LOUIS DEJOY’S viral moment and MEGHAN MCCAIN’S complaint to ANTHONY FAUCI.

BIDEN’S FRIDAY — The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will leave the White House at 9:40 a.m. for Joint Base Andrews. They’ll arrive in Houston at noon central time. Jill Biden will visit the Houston Food Bank at 12:50 p.m. as the president tours Harris County Emergency Operations Center at 12:55 p.m. He’ll then head to the food bank and meet volunteers at 2:20 p.m. At 5 p.m. he’ll deliver remarks at NRG Stadium’s vaccination facility, and the Bidens will depart at 6 p.m. They’ll arrive back at the White House at 10 p.m. Eastern time. Harris has nothing on her public schedule.

— The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Houston with ELIZABETH SHERWOOD-RANDALL, homeland security adviser and deputy national security adviser.

PLAYBOOK READS

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

BIDEN’S FIRST BIG MILITARY MOVE —“U.S. bombs facilities in Syria used by Iran-backed militia,” AP: “The United States launched airstrikes in Syria on Thursday, targeting facilities near the Iraqi border used by Iranian-backed militia groups. The Pentagon said the strikes were retaliation for a rocket attack in Iraq earlier this month that killed one civilian contractor and wounded a U.S. service member and other coalition troops.

“The airstrike was the first military action undertaken by the Biden administration, which in its first weeks has emphasized its intent to put more focus on the challenges posed by China, even as Mideast threats persist. Biden’s decision to attack in Syria did not appear to signal an intention to widen U.S. military involvement in the region but rather to demonstrate a will to defend U.S. troops in Iraq.”

BIDEN CHATS WITH SALMAN — “Biden Calls Saudi Arabia’s King Salman Amid Policy Review,” WSJ: “President Biden spoke by phone Thursday with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, as the White House reviews U.S. policy toward the kingdom and the administration prepares to release an unclassified report on the role of Saudi officials in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

“The White House said the two leaders discussed regional security, including diplomatic efforts to end the war in Yemen, as well as a U.S. commitment to help the kingdom defend its territory from groups aligned with Iran.”

LGBTQ RIGHTS IN THE SPOTLIGHT

— “Historic LGBTQ rights bill passes — after exposing GOP divisions,” by Olivia Beavers and Melanie Zanona: “The House passed sweeping legislation on Thursday to ban discrimination against people based on sexual orientation and gender identity … The Equality Act, which would amend the 1964 Civil Rights Act to provide protections for LGBTQ individuals, garnered unanimous support from House Democrats on its way to approval on a 224-206 vote. Three Republicans crossed party lines …

“But some Republicans worry that this week’s controversial antics from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who harassed Rep. Marie Newman (D-Ill.) over her transgender daughter, have stomped on their attempts to sensitively communicate why they are opposed to the LGBTQ rights bill. Most Republicans say they oppose the measure due to its perceived infringement on religious freedom, not out of discriminatory sentiment toward LGBTQ people -- a fine line that Greene has effectively erased.”

MEANWHILE, IN THE SENATE — “Sen. Rand Paul Presses Transgender Health Nominee About Treatment in Children,” WSJ: “A hearing for a transgender person nominated by President Biden for a top administration health position turned tense Thursday as she was pressed over her stance on gender dysphoria treatment for minors. Republican Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky started his questioning by mentioning ‘genital mutilation’ to Dr. Rachel Levine, the nominee for assistant health secretary. …

“In response to Mr. Paul’s questions, Dr. Levine said a variety of issues must be considered in treating minors. ‘Transgender medicine is a very complex and nuanced field with robust research and standards of care that have been developed,’ she said. Some Democratic lawmakers later in the hearing criticized Mr. Paul for the line of questions.”

GABBY ORR, who’s better wired with social/religious conservatives than most reporters, wrote an interesting thread on Twitter: “Noticing an influx of activity in GOP circles around transgender rights e.g. … It seems like now that Rs are out of power and searching for new ways to generate outrage among the grassroots base/connect with social conservatives ahead of the midterms, they’re testing the waters on this new-ish topic.”

And JON RALSTON, the dean of the Nevada press corps and the father of a transgender son, tweeted that he was “saddened” by the discourse in Congress. “I expect aggressive transphobia from Marge Q. And the Rand Paul shtick is as obnoxious as ever. But it has been almost five years since I wrote this, and it saddens me that so much hatred born of ignorance still exists. Maybe talk to someone who knows?” He linked to a personal reflection he wrote about his own experience.

RELATED — BIG MTG PROFILE by MICHAEL KRUSE: “‘Nobody Listened To Me’: The Quest to Be MTG”: “[H]er seat in Congress is less the fulfillment of a dream than the culmination of a desperate, years-long search for an identity that fulfilled a yearning for affirmation and attention. After a decade marked by troubles at work and at home, adultery, palpable discontentedness and a consuming zeal for intense exercise and faddish nutrition, her roving craving for an audience found its ultimate outlet in right-wing online commentary and finally real-world, face-to-face provocation.

“Over the course of the last 10 years, she morphed from an affluent, all but apolitical, middle-aged attendee of an evangelical megachurch to an aspiring, publicity-seeking CrossFit persona to a right-out-of-the-gate hectoring lawmaker who now literally wears her grievance on the mask on her face. …

“She’s been called ‘Trump in heels,’ and the analogy is apt: What Trump did in 2015 and ’16 to get to the White House provided a visceral template for what Greene did in ’19 and ’20 to get to Capitol Hill, as if his needy, spotlight-greedy ascent activated in her some smoldering set of latent genes.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

‘THIS WAS RON, RON, RON, RON’ — “Biden’s chief of staff at center of controversy over White House budget pick,” WaPo: “Klain is an ally of Neera Tanden’s and a key advocate who recommended her to lead the White House Office of Management and Budget, according to four senior Democratic officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details of private conversations. … [He] has been adamant that the administration should continue to push for Tanden’s nomination despite the long odds, the officials said. …

“Tanden’s challenges in being confirmed also underscore the risks for the president’s chief of staff, who must maintain Biden’s confidence across a range of personnel and policy decisions. …

“‘This was Ron, Ron, Ron, Ron,’ one of the senior Democratic officials said. ‘Ron is doing a great job, but this was not his best moment.’”

POLITICS ROUNDUP

2024 WATCH — “Trump shares plans for new super PAC in Mar-a-Lago meeting,” by Alex Isenstadt: “President Donald Trump told political advisers Thursday that he’s chosen longtime ally Corey Lewandowski to run a yet to-be formed super PAC as part of his expanding post-presidential political apparatus, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion.

“The decision was made in a multi-hour meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate on Thursday. Trump gathered his top political lieutenants, including Donald Trump Jr., former campaign manager Bill Stepien, former deputy campaign manager Justin Clark, former campaign manager Brad Parscale, former White House social media director Dan Scavino and senior adviser Jason Miller.”

— “McConnell would support Trump if he got 2024 Republican nomination,” by Matthew Choi: “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Thursday he would support Donald Trump in 2024 if he became the Republican presidential nominee, less than two weeks after condemning the former president for the Capitol insurrection.

“‘The nominee of the party? Absolutely,’ McConnell told Fox News’ Bret Baier on Thursday when asked whether he would back Trump if he got the nomination.” The clip

CPAC KICKS OFF — “At conservative gathering, there’s just one litmus test: Loyalty to Trump,” L.A. Times: “Throughout the weekend, loyalty tests will be everywhere — panels touting Trump’s false claims of election fraud, speeches from Republican hopefuls who will compete to praise him, and a straw poll designed to show him as the favorite for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination.

“‘He’s not done with politics,’ said Matt Schlapp, the American Conservative Union chairman and organizer of the annual conference known as CPAC. ‘Does he run again? That’s to be determined. But he is going to mess around in the political environment every day of this cycle.’”

— “Here Are Some of the Top Republicans Not Attending CPAC This Year,” Bloomberg

— “Republican leaders split while CPAC prepares to unite around Trump,” by Melanie Zanona and Olivia Beavers

MEDIAWATCH

TIPPED TWEETS? — “Twitter to Launch Subscription Service Super Follows, Aims to Double Revenue by 2023,” WSJ: “Twitter Inc. plans to introduce a subscription service for content creators and said it would explore tipping, as it looks to double its annual revenue and accelerate user growth over the next few years. The social-media company on Thursday said the subscription initiative, called Super Follows, will give people an opportunity to receive payments for their content.”

BARON SAYS GOODBYE — “‘You’ve Made the Post Swashbuckling Once Again’: Marty Baron Receives a Star-studded Farewell and Dishes in a Wide-ranging Exit Interview,” Vanity Fair: “At 3 p.m. on Thursday afternoon, hundreds of Washington Post employees logged on to a video call for a pandemic-safe virtual farewell to Marty Baron, whose last day as executive editor is Sunday, February 28. …

“Thursday’s pretaped video tribute to Baron was an A-list affair befitting journalism royalty, with remarks from the likes of Jeff Bezos, Steven Spielberg, Diane von Furstenberg, Lesley Stahl, Dean Baquet, Wolf Blitzer, and Lester Holt, as well as the Hollywood team that immortalized Baron in Spotlight: Liev Schreiber, Tom McCarthy, and Josh Singer.” Plus: Baron on Trump’s calls, vulture hedge funds, listening to staff, building reader trust and more

PANDEMIC

TRACKER: The U.S. reported 2,332 Covid-19 deaths and 76,000 new coronavirus cases Thursday.

EASING DISTRIBUTION — “U.S. loosens Pfizer vaccine shipping regulations,” AP: “U.S. regulators are allowing Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to be shipped and stored at less-frigid temperatures, which should ease distribution and administration of one of the two vaccines authorized for emergency use in the country.

“The Food and Drug Administration said Thursday that it’s allowing the additional option after reviewing new data from New York-based Pfizer and its German partner, BioNTech. The FDA said the vaccine, which is shipped in frozen vials, now can be transported and stored for up to two weeks at the temperatures of freezers commonly found in pharmacies.”

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week,” guest-hosted by Peter Baker: Susan Davis, Errin Haines, Mark Mazzetti and Ashley Parker.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

  • CBS

    “Face the Nation”: RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel … Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) … Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Scott Gottlieb.

  • ABC

    “This Week”: Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) … Anthony Fauci. Panel: Chris Christie, Rahm Emanuel, Yvette Simpson and Sarah Isgur.

  • MSNBC

    “The Sunday Show”: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) … Rep. Marie Newman (D-Ill.) … Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.).

  • FOX

    “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Panel: Ben Domenech, Jane Harman and Susan Page. Power Player: Caleb Anderson.

  • Gray TV

    “Full Court Press”: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).

  • NBC

    “Meet the Press”: Panel: O. Kay Henderson, Carol Lee, Eugene Robinson and Bret Stephens.

  • CNN

    “Inside Politics”: Seung Min Kim … Phil Mattingly … Scott Jennings … Ashish Jha … Amy Walter.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) on an American Airlines flight from DCA to Phoenix on Thursday afternoon.

FROM NYT EDITOR TO BOOK EDITOR — Bill Hamilton will be an executive editor at Celadon Books, focusing on politics and history nonfiction. Hamilton, a favorite of many reporters he’s worked with over a long newspaper career, has been Washington editor at the NYT for the past five years, and is a POLITICO and WaPo alum.

THE ODD COUPLE — “State of the Union: Kellyanne Conway and George Conway,” Vanity Fair: “Friends have watched the Conway drama like a slow-moving train wreck, sometimes too timid to really ask what’s going on. As of late February, the Conways are still together, joined by 20 years of marriage and four children. Still, conversations with numerous sources from both camps—yes, there are camps with the Conways—reveal the couple to be in an extremely fragile state—miles away from ‘closure.’

“The wounds are still raw from their public clashes. As important, they don’t have a mutual grasp on what has just happened to the country, creating a high level of exasperation. George believes that Trumpism should be eradicated from the planet. Kellyanne, on the other hand, is still in explain-away-daddy mode, not giving an inch. … To admit that Trump is a profoundly flawed human being would be to admit that George was right and that she made a mistake. And winners like Kellyanne don’t make mistakes. They go from one triumph to the next and turn controversies into career opportunities, like the big, juicy memoir she is writing.”

CLASSIC — “Boehner goes off script, tells Cruz to ‘go f**k yourself,’” Axios: “John Boehner has been going off script while recording the audio version of his new memoir, using expletives and asides not in the book.”

CLICKER — “Washington’s Most Influential People,” Washingtonian: “The 250 experts and advocates—outside the government—who’ll be shaping the policy debates of the years to come.” One highlight: POLITICO’s own Kelsey Tamborrino!

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions is adding Evan Dixon as comms director and Andrew Shaffer on the government relations team. Dixon previously was press secretary for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), and Shaffer was previously at USDA.

TRUMP ALUMNI, via NYT’s Maggie Haberman: “In former admin news, as officials start to land in various places, Mark PAOLETTA, former top OMB official under Trump, joining Russ VOUGHT Center for American Restoration part-time as a senior fellow and also opening his own lobbying shop.”

TRANSITIONS — Julio Lainez will be VP at government relations firm NVG. He currently is deputy director of legislative affairs at the Transport Workers Union of America, and is a Seth Moulton alum. … Daniel Roberts will be comms lead for innovation and growth at General Motors. He most recently has been head of state policy comms at Facebook.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Amanda Loveday ... David Beasley … Dave Boyer ... Sophie Willis … Corry Bliss … Arden Farhi ... POLITICO’s Katie Ellsworth … Sarah Eppler ... Carrie Meadows ... Kelley Gannon Russell ... A’shanti Gholar ... Ashli Scott Palmer of Peck Madigan Jones ... Li Zhou ... Courtney Paul ... Alan Rosenblatt … Bassima Alghussein … Peter Scheer ... Will Mitchell … Ronald Lauder … Julie Miner … Alana Newhouse … Reuters’ Nicholas Brown ... Adam Baer … Maia Estes … ROKK Solutions VP John Brandt

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Who would be your pick to replace the Senate parliamentarian? Drop us a line at [email protected] or individually: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike Zapler and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this Playbook misstated RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel’s name.