Is Iowa a swing state? The importance of the midwestern state in the 2020 US presidential election

Tim Baker4 February 2020

With the US presidential election happening in November, campaigning is already well under way and both the Republicans and Democrats are eyeing up which states they will need to win.

Iowa is one that both Donald Trump and rivals such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg will want to get a hold of in order to secure the keys to the White House.

The midwestern state - which borders Illinois to the east, Minnesota to the north, Nebraska to the east and Missouri to the south - has been seen as a barometer for the result in previous years.

Iowans voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but shifted their allegiance to Mr Trump in 2016.

Democrats like Elizabeth Warren will be hoping to win the support of Iowa Democrats in order to run against President Trump
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Why is Iowa so important in US presidential elections?

As part of the midwest group of states, Iowa is seen as a litmus test for the mood of rural voters in the country.

A large proportion of the residents live outside of cities, and it is around 95 per cent white.

It does not hold much of a sway on the outcome of the election however, as it only has six votes out of 538 votes in the electoral college.

Iowa is also one of the first states to declare which candidate they support in the Democratic Primaries.

This can set the stage for an outsider to gain momentum - like Barack Obama in 2008 - or end their campaign before it gets off the ground.

Is it still considered a swing state?

Iowa is a swing state, as it has the potential to change from supporting Mr Trump to supporting the Democrats.

It has changed its support three times since the turn of the millennium, having supported George W. Bush in 2004.

But Iowa saw the largest swing to the Republican party out of the six states that turned red, an some strategists in the Democratic party think it might be wise to focus resources elsewhere.

Mr Trump clearly sees value in the region, as he was campaigning there in February among the Democratic caucuses.

Barack Obama won the support of Iowa in both 2008 and 2012
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How has Iowa voted in the past?

Iowa has changed hands many times in past elections.

In 2016 it voted for Donald Trump, after supporting Barack Obama in both 2012 and 2008.

Before that it supported Republican George W. Bush in 2004, after backing unsuccessful Democrat candidate Al Gore in 2000.

Democrat Bill Clinton was supported by a majority of Iowans for both his terms in the 1992 and 1996 elections.

Michael Dukakis was chosen by Iowa in 1988, but he was defeated by George H. W. Bush overall.

In 1980 and 1984, Iowa supported Republican president Ronald Reagan.

How does the Iowa caucus work?

The Iowa caucus is the way that members of the Democratic Party select who they want to run as their candidate in the General Election.

Registered Democrats gather in locations across the state and debate and discuss the candidates before voting on who they support.

These results are reported to the central party and reflected at the Democratic Convention later in the year, where states announce which candidate they are supporting