Michelle Obama would be an instant front-runner if she jumped into the New Hampshire Democratic primary — where Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are locked in a tight, three-way fight, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald poll shows.
While there’s no indication that Obama has an interest in running in 2020, the poll gives an intriguing glimpse into what the race would look like if the former first lady decides to follow in her husband’s footsteps and give presidential politics a try.
The former first lady leads all the other Democrats with 26 percent of the vote in a theoretical matchup against Warren, Biden, Sanders and the rest of the field, according to the poll of 422 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. Warren and Biden would each get 20 percent against Obama while Sanders would trail with 15 percent.
Without Obama in the race, Warren gets 25 percent of the vote, Biden gets 24 percent, while Sanders follows with 22 percent, according to the poll, conducted Oct. 9-13. All three are within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. Just seven percent of likely Democratic voters say they are undecided with four months left before the primary.
South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg follows in fourth place with nine percent, followed by California Sen. Kamala Harris at five percent, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar with two percent and former businessman Tom Steyer and entrepreneur Andrew Yang at one percent each.
More than 58 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic voters have a “very favorable” impression of Michelle Obama while 21 percent have a “somewhat favorable” view — which would be extraordinarily high ratings for a presidential candidate. Just 14 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Obama.
Nearly 50 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters have a “very favorable” view of Warren, while 14 percent have a somewhat or very unfavorable impression of the Massachusetts senator.
The poll also reveals some bad news for President Trump in New Hampshire — he would be trounced by his Democratic opponent if the general election were held today. Just one third of New Hampshire voters would back Trump in a race against a generic Democratic rival, while 49 percent would back the Democrat.
On the Republican side, Trump remains in an extremely strong position, with 81 percent of 402 likely GOP primary voters approving of his job performance. A total of 55 percent “strongly approve” of his job performance, the poll finds. Just 19 percent of likely Republican primary voters say they disapprove of the job Trump is doing.
But Trump, now facing an impeachment inquiry, did show some signs of slippage in a matchup against other GOP candidates.
The president receives 71 percent of the vote in a primary matchup against his challengers, a 17-point drop from the last Franklin Pierce-Herald poll in September. Former Massachusetts Gov. William F. Weld now gets 14 percent of the vote, an 11-point rise over the last month.
The poll also tested how several other Republicans would perform if they got into the race. Former Massachusetts governor and current Utah Sen. Mitt Romney would receive 12 percent of the vote among likely GOP primary voters, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich would get 9 percent each.
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Memorandum on poll methodology and results
Complete data tables of poll results