Republicans Heading for A Brokered Convention

August 31, 2015

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, EINNews.com

My crystal ball tells me that after all of the delegates have been selected for next year’s Republican national convention, the winning candidate is likely to be....

Nobody.

So how have I come to such an unsatisfactory conclusion? Do the math. If Donald Trump can convert into delegates the 25-30% support level he’s consistently drawing in the polls, one of his rivals will have to pull two-thirds of the 70-75% that’s left. In a field with at least 9 other viable contenders, how likely is that?

A total of 2470 delegates will be selected for the Republican convention in Cleveland next July. To win the nomination, a candidate needs 1236 of those votes. It’s no sure thing that Trump can navigate the byzantine waters of his party’s primaries, conventions and caucuses to win delegates equal to his polling numbers, but at this writing it’s certainly plausible. That would give him at least 620 convention votes. Any other Republican contender would need to win two-thirds of the remaining 1850 delegates.

In a “normal” presidential campaign one or two other candidates could be expected to break away from the pack early, with good showings in Iowa or New Hampshire. But 2016 is not only abnormal, for Republicans it’s bizarre. Backed by virtually unlimited billionaire money, many contenders are planning long distance runs, eyeing big pots full of delegates available in later states where campaign costs will sink those without big bankrolls.

Fully 25% of the delegates will still be up for grabs in May and June, big prizes in expensive states---California, Texas, Michigan, New Jersey. Candidates who have not been totally wiped out early and can afford big ticket TV time will be counting on those states for serious stretch runs, hoping to get to the convention in Cleveland just weeks later with unstoppable momentum.

One of the major unintended consequences of the Citizens’ United decision is alteration of the presidential landscape by allowing more candidates to dream longer. The more delegates they pile up the more leverage they will have not only for 2016 but in political power plays beyond. It never hurts a candidate with national ambitions to show up at a national convention with demonstrable support. Second spot as the vice presidential pick? A choice job in the next cabinet? Short list for 2020 if the 2016 nominee doesn’t make it?

Or maybe, just maybe, a brokered convention where lighting strikes and the powers that be (who most definitely would not select Trump, no matter how many delegates he may have) turn to...who?

That’s why so many candidates who can afford to go to distance will. If Perry hangs in there he’ll have a big bloc of votes out of Texas that might otherwise go to Ted Cruz. Or maybe they will go to Cruz and that’s why Cruz would stay in the race. Will Christie fold, knowing that he’s likely to be propped up by New Jersey’s delegates? Even if Christie's not still a candidate he could be a “favorite son,” ready to make the best trade he can at the convention. Carly Fiorina is from California. Having those votes gives her leverage for the vice presidential slot, particularly if it appears that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic choice.

Will the Koch brothers go for Trump? Of course not. And they’re going to broker whatever delegates Walker, and perhaps others have. The Koch brothers are planning to invest nearly a billion dollars in the Republican candidate’s general election campaign. They will have a lot to say about who that is.

Let’s not forget the other money people behind all of these candidates. When you get to a brokered convention, with the nomination genuinely undecided, all those billionaires we’ve been hearing about, plus the Kings of the World on Wall Street, become super delegates. They would hope to pick someone who will win in November. They definitely will opt for someone who won’t prove a humiliation. That could cost them not only the White House, but congressional majorities as well.

Who best fits that profile? The safest choice would be Bush. Bush couldn’t clear the field when he first announced his candidacy with the blessing of so many inside money people. He hasn’t been impressive, to say the least, in the months since. The latest polls have him at about 7%. But he has this going for him---trust and respectability among many of those who will pay for the non-Trump general election.

When Bush entered the race I told friends, “not a chance.” The country still has a collective headache from the last Bush. And having watched Jeb Bush for years, it always seemed to me his package was more impressive than its contents. But in a brokered convention, you would have to consider him the favorite, unless he self-destructs between here and there.

Bush-Clinton anyone? As of today that’s how I see it.

Or maybe more likely, Bush-Clinton-Trump.

(Joe Rothstein can be contacted at joe@einnews.com)