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Worst Drought In 1,000 Years Ahead for U.S. Southwest, But Writing About It Might Upset The Oil Companies

February 25, 2013


By Joe Rothstein
Editor, EINNEWS.com

Journalism and science are an awkward fit.

Journalism is now! It just happened! The hurricane hit! The meteor exploded!

Science, on the other hand, is an exploration of uncertainties, much of it based on long term observation, experimentation and probability. Research scientists are seldom “certain.” Doubt and curiosity are the twin pillars driving scientific advancement.

So when science and politics collide, journalists, most of whom have little scientific background, are out of their element. They retreat to the lowest patch of journalistic real estate where they feel comfortable---he-said, she-said articles that make little attempt to arbitrate differences. It took decades for mainstream journalism to report the link between smoking and health as fact and not just a dispute between anti-smoking activists and the tobacco companies.

We’re seeing that scenario being played out again with climate change, with the inevitable public confusion about whether it’s a crisis, as the vast majority of scientists claim, or a fraud, as oil-company-backed reports would have us believe.

Case in point.

One of the most respected research centers in the world just forecast that the worst drought in 1,000 years most likely will scorch the North American Southwest quite soon, possibly as soon as 2020, a drought far more severe than the one currently being experienced, a megadrought that could last for 200 years. The only major news outlet to explain the significance of that report was Agence France Presse, the French news service.

The Southwest drought forecast was published in December by the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. This is the institution whose scientists were the first to map the seafloor and develop a computer model that could predict an El Nino weather event. They were the first to provide concrete proof for the theory of plate tectonics and to reveal the oceans’ role in triggering abrupt climate change. In other words, these scientists are as credible a source about earthly behavior as one can find.

The December report updates one that Lamont-Doherty scientists released in 2007, a report that was titled, “Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America.” The new report is based on observations and analysis over the past five years, using improved equipment and techniques. The conclusion: the 2007 report understated the problem.

The new research says there’s no modern counterpart for the devastation from drought that lies ahead. It compares only to a megadrought that occurred about 1,000 years ago.

As the snowpack declines because of warmer winters, and planet warming accelerates the evaporation of water that falls as rain, the Colorado River and other major water sources in the West will continue to experience hotter, drier conditions--with catastrophic consequences for agriculture, drinking water supplies and other water uses we now consider commonplace.

Right on cue, NOAA last week reported that snowpack in several Western river basins this year is about 50 percent of normal. That report was treated more or less as a one-off story by the media, in context only with the extreme drought that has plagued the region for the past few years, without reference to the deadly long-term trend.

The warming of the planet, for mainstream journalism, is still a political hot potato, with many reporters and editors loathe to come down definitively on the side of science, or to dig deeper than the often bland and conditional context in which scientists report the results of their research. I spotted this story on the web site truth-out.org, with an excellent analysis of the report by Bruce Melton, himself an environmental researcher and engineer.

Despite the near blackout of global warming news in the mainstream media, there’s evidence that the public is tuning in more closely to what seems to be impending disaster. During a bitter cold Sunday in February, tens of thousands of people showed up on the national mall to advocate for action. In polls, very few now deny that global warming is occurring or represents a threat. The venerable Sierra Club just joined scientists and others engaged in civil disobedience at the White House to ramp up political pressure.

End running political opposition, President Obama has made an impact on greenhouse gas reduction through higher car mileage standards, more emphasis on alternative fuels and other measures. But it remains to be seen whether he will cave into the intense pressure and allow the Keystone pipeline to go forward, or will stick by an EPA that wants to more aggressively regulate power plant emissions. These would be easier decisions for the President if the media were conveying to the public science's verdict on the consequences of not lowering greenhouse emissions.

One entity that needs no prompting to make a shift to alternative fuels is the U.S. Navy. The Navy can’t live off the land. It needs fuel to keep its ships at sea, and for the U.S. Navy that means fueling ships in every ocean in the world, constantly. To make sure the Navy can perform its mission, the Navy is pushing hard to have a Green Fleet, one powered by at least 50 percent alternative fuels by 2020.

Those who run the U.S. Navy don’t have the luxury of politicians to kick energy and climate questions down the road, or the timidity of journalists who abdicate their responsibility to address research realities squarely.

The meteorite that blew up in Russia and the asteroid that came within satellite distance of earth drew huge mainstream media attention. But both were merely one day wonders. The research report that says we’re on a path to environmental destruction of the American Southwest was barely reported, and the media that did notice hardly gave it the black type coverage it deserved.

Global warming devastation is not a “now” event. But it will compromise the future of every living thing on the planet.

(Joe Rothstein can be contacted at joe@einnews.com)



Joe Rothstein is a political strategist and media producer who worked in more than 200 campaigns for political office and political causes. He also has served as editor of the Anchorage Daily News and as an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. He has a master's degree in journalism from UCLA. Mr. Rothstein is the author of award-winning political thrillers, The Latina President and the Conspiracy to Destroy Her, The Salvation Project, and The Moment of Menace. For more information, please visit his website at https://www.joerothstein.net/.