Next Surprise: Hillary for Veep?

August 13, 2012

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, EINNEWS.com

When Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate he introduced him as “The next President of the United States.”

Romney quickly corrected himself and commentators chalked it up to another Romney speaking gaff, of which there have been many. But the fact is, if the Romney-Ryan ticket gets punched in by voters in November, on most matters that count Ryan effectively will be as much of a White House power as Romney.

Romney was lightly backed by congressional Republicans in party primaries. Ryan, however, is another matter. As ideological leader of House Republicans, Ryan’s thumbs up or down on budget proposals, social issues, even the reliability of Supreme Court nominees, would carry decisive weight with Congress. In effect, most White House decisions requiring congressional action and legislative confirmation would run through Paul Ryan. And Ryan, of course, is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow of right wing dreams.

The Ryan pick, rather than one of desperation, is one of astute political calculation.

Is this a “turnout election,” where the prize goes to the team that can get more of its supporters to the polls? Ryan all but guarantees that no registered Republican will be left behind.

Is this an election where big bucks matter? What would you do if you were mega-rich and knew that a million dollar campaign investment would end all taxes on your capital gains and dividends and lower your individual tax rate by 25 per cent?

Need to get white males voting Republican at the same support level that allowed the immensely unpopular George W. Bush a second term? Ryan’s maleness, whiteness and working class roots make it easier to overlook Romney’s patrician background and bearing. Ryan won seven elections in a working class Milwaukee congressional district.

Need to cut into the gender gap and win back some women voters? Ryan is charming, non-threatening (he’s no Dick Cheney) and just doesn’t seem like the kind of young man who would gut Medicare, Social Security, child welfare payments and make it harder for you to send your kid to college.

I’ve been around long enough to remember Democratic Party insiders rooting for Ronald Reagan to win the 1980 GOP presidential nomination. He’d be the easiest candidate to beat. Too far to the right. People wouldn’t elect a movie star to be the leader of the free world. Remember?

I do. And I imagine there are plenty of people on the Obama election team who do, too. Yes, the party line is to rub your hands with glee dreaming of all the possibilities for attacking the Romney-Ryan agenda along with all those down ticket Republicans who now must defend the most extreme right wing economic policy being advocated since the 19th century.

But backed by hoards of cash and current popular disgust with “government” there’s no reason why a focused and credible GOP message that Obama has failed, let’s try something new, energized by Ryan’s youth, credentials and foot soldier enthusiasm would not gain traction. Ryan deals new and unpredictable cards into a hand that had been looking pretty good for President Obama. The White House almost certainly knows that.

That’s why I’m going to double down on a forecast I made many months ago.

I believe the Obama team’s answer to Paul Ryan will be Hillary Clinton.

Here’s the logic.

Hillary is far more popular than Obama, Romney, Biden or Ryan. She’s the most trusted, admired person in active national political life. A Washington Post-ABC poll in April gave her a 65 percent positive rating, against 27 percent negative. In July Bill Clinton clocked in with a nearly identical 66-28 from Gallup.

Hillary Clinton would do for the Democratic ticket what Ryan is doing for the Republicans: energize a still somewhat uninspired base of supporters to beat their brains out working for victory at street level.

With Hillary Clinton on the ballot, Republicans could forget the women’s vote. The combination of women unfriendly GOP policy positions and the prospect of the best opportunity ever to have a woman in the White House would stretch the gender gap to its outer limits.

And, for undecided voters who consider themselves independent and non-ideological, Hillary Clinton makes a Democratic choice feel much more middle of the road and moderate than the right wing radical experimentation going on inside the Republican Party.

Would Hillary Clinton do it? Of course. She’d do it because of its historic importance. And if she’s looking for a respite from her frantic Secretary of State pace, VP is a much less demanding job.

Would Biden step aside? Of course. He’d do it because he’s a consummate professional who can read poll numbers as well as anyone. His stepping aside for Hillary Clinton would mean a virtual lock for an Obama second term. Not stepping aside could leave reelection prospects too close for comfort. As for Biden’s future, Secretary of State isn’t a bad consolation prize.

Would President Obama do it? We know this much about President Obama after four years in office: He’s what the Republicans say he is---a Chicago politician who has no problem making deals for political advantage.

I’m not quite ready to bet the farm on an Obama-Clinton ticket. Post-Republican convention polls will decide this issue one way or another. But politically it makes all of the sense in the world, particularly in the face of the Ryan pick. And it makes sense that any talk of such a deal gets denied right up to the Democratic Party convention. The shock waves of a last minute switch would totally drown out any momentum Republicans get from their own convention a week earlier.

One last thing. If you’re reading tea leaves, Joe Biden has not---repeat, not---been booked as prime time convention speaker the night before Obama’s re-nomination. That’s a significant break with longstanding tradition where the VP choice gets his night to shine. Instead of Biden, that coveted spot will go to Clinton. Bill Clinton.

Don’t be too surprised if that scheduled solo turns out to be a duet.

(Joe Rothstein can be contacted at joe@einnews.com)