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Are Top Republicans Out to Derail Romney's Nomination?

By Joe Rothstein — July 22, 2012

Editor, EINNEWS.com

About this time four years ago, Hillary Clinton’s supporters were still hoping for a late-breaking game changer that would tip the delegate board and derail Barack Obama before the Democratic convention.

Like the Clinton supporters four years ago, many Republican leaders and activists have not given up the idea of a last minute reprieve from a Mitt Romney candidacy. Yes, Romney has enough delegate commitments to be nominated. But until those commitments become delegate votes he’s still what the media refer to him as, the “presumptive nominee.” Presumptive, as in “presume.”

But let’s presume that Romney’s continued stonewalling of the release of his tax returns clicks in with voters as a serious blemish on Romney's character and his poll numbers begin to tank. Or presume that he does release those tax records and they prove what many suspect--that he didn’t pay any taxes at all in 2008 or 2009, or that he took advantage of a no-IRS-prosecution amnesty given in 2009 to Americans with Swiss bank accounts, or that Romney’s returns contradict claims he’s been making about his Bain experience.

And let’s presume this happens in the weeks remaining before the Republican National Convention gavels open on August 27. Would delegates, and Republican leadership, stay pat with what would then be seen as a losing hand? Would GOP candidates locked in tight races for the Senate, House, Governor, and other offices seek relief from the prospect of defending Romney through the grueling weeks of September and October?

What makes me think these thoughts is the unusual flak Romney is getting from powerhouse members of his own party. Very public flak. Rupert Murdoch and his Wall Street Journal. Fox News commentator Brit Hume. Bill Kristol and his Weekly Standard. Columnists George Will and Matthew Dowd. John McCain’s polling guru Ana Navarro. People representing just about every one of Romney’s primary opponents, including Texas Gov. Rick Perry himself.

All of these Republican voices have this in common: they either actively opposed Romney in the primary, worked behind the scenes to encourage Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels or others to jump into the race, or refused to support Romney despite the fact that for most of the primary season he was the likely nominee.

In other words, those calling loudest now for Romney to release his tax returns are those who have a deep and abiding interest in his going down the political drain before the Tampa convention.

There’s another commonality. The 2008 McCain campaign, and those who opposed Romney in the 2012 primaries, did their opposition research homework. They all combed Romney’s writings, speeches, prior business and political activity and finances with high-powered research microscopes. It’s not just the Obama campaign that has all of this information.

You get a strong sense from the anti-Romney folks with insider research knowledge that they look at a Romney candidacy with despair. Why? Current polls show an even-up, winnable race for Romney. Do GOP insiders fear what’s ahead because they know things we don’t?

Or, it could be that having failed to support Romney they see themselves being candidates for political cold storage for the next four years should Romney get control of the White House, the Republican Party and all the other levers of power that make or break reputations in politics, business and journalism.

Or, it could be that the Mormon factor is a tougher sell with the Republican religious base than current polling shows and anyone inside the political loop is letting on. (Personal note: When I was an active political consultant I always discounted poll numbers by a lot when I was working with candidates who were black, female or Indian. Respondents lie on those polls, keeping their prejudice to themselves. You learn that lesson the hard way when you work in enough campaigns).

Fifty-six percent of all voters, including 61 percent of independents, believe Romney should release at least 12 years of his tax records. That number is sure to grow as more verbal kerosene gets poured on the fire. It makes no sense for Romney to stonewall their release.

As columnist George Will says, "The costs of not releasing the returns are clear, therefore he must have calculated that there are higher costs in releasing them."

That "higher cost" seems to be just the outcome that Will, Kristol, Rupert Murdoch and others are trying to achieve--before Romney gets nominated.

Maybe their dream of a Christie or Daniels at the top of the ticket is not entirely dead.

(Joe Rothstein can be contacted at joe@einnews.com)



Joe Rothstein is a political strategist and media producer who worked in more than 200 campaigns for political office and political causes. He also has served as editor of the Anchorage Daily News and as an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Graduate School of Political Management. He has a master's degree in journalism from UCLA. Mr. Rothstein is the author of award-winning political thrillers, The Latina President and the Conspiracy to Destroy Her, The Salvation Project, and The Moment of Menace. For more information, please visit his website at https://www.joerothstein.net/.