The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-11: On Wednesday, GOP Rep. Mike Conaway confirmed that he would not seek a ninth term in Texas' 11th District, which officially makes him the fourth Republican to retire in just eight days.
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The GOP will have no trouble holding Conaway's 78-19 Trump seat, which includes Midland, San Angelo, and Odessa. However, House Republicans reportedly fear that many more members, unhappy with life in the minority, could decide to call it a career, and Conaway's departure is unlikely to comfort them. Conaway himself said Wednesday that he'd decided last year to retire, and while he said he wanted to leave because he would be termed-out as the top Republican on the powerful Agriculture Committee, he acknowledged that "being in the minority is a frustrating experience."
Republicans saw numerous retirements last cycle, which gave Democrats a better chance to seize plenty of vulnerable seats, and Team Blue did not pass it up. Another mass exodus of GOP representatives could open up even more competitive districts as well as signal to potential candidates that the Republicans don't feel good about retaking the House next year.
And we could indeed see that mass exodus. Last week, right after Alabama Rep. Martha Roby retired, Missouri Rep. Billy Long publicly predicted on Twitter that many fellow Republicans would "decide over the break once they've been home for 5 weeks that it's tough to come Back to DC." However, Conaway's departure came just days into Congress' six-week hiatus.
Conaway spent years as a powerful member of the House, though he didn't attract much outside attention until recently. Conaway grew up in football-crazed Odessa, and he played on the 1965 Permian High School team that secured the school its first-ever state championship title. (The football program would be profiled decades later by author Buzz Bissinger for his 1990 nonfiction book "Friday Night Lights," which was later adapted into a movie and TV show.)
Conaway went on to become an accountant, and he served as chief financial officer of George W. Bush's oil company, Bush Exploration, in the 1980s. In 1994, after Bush was elected governor, he appointed Conaway to the state board of accountants.
Conaway first ran for office in a 2003 special election for what was then numbered as the 19th District, a seat that included Odessa and nearby Midland as well as Lubbock to the north. Conaway and fellow Republican Randy Neugebauer both advanced through the crowded all-party primary, but the Lubbock-based Neugebauer won the runoff 50.5-49.5. However, Conaway performed incredibly well in the Midland area, which would serve him well the next year.
Conaway got another chance to run for Congress in 2004 after the GOP legislature passed the infamous DeLaymander that redrew Texas' congressional map. Republicans targeted conservative Democratic Rep. Charlie Stenholm for defeat by splitting up his seat, and Stenholm opted to unsuccessfully run against Neugebauer in the new 19th District based in the Lubbock area. Meanwhile, Conaway's base in the Midland area was moved into a new and open 11th District, and he had no trouble winning the GOP primary for this safely red seat.
Conaway never faced a serious re-election challenge, and he went on to become a senior official at the National Republican Congressional Committee. The former accountant may have done his party its greatest service in 2008 when he helped reveal that the NRCC's former treasurer had spent six years embezzling the committee's money. The NRCC ultimately lost a total of $1 million from legal and accounting fees and from stolen money they could not recover.
Conaway chaired the Agriculture Committee until the Democrats took the House this year. However, he may be best known for leading the House Intelligence Committee's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. Last year, Conaway infuriated Democrats when he concluded that the Trump campaign did not collude with Russia and shut down the inquiry. However, Democrats still focused much of their anger on California Rep. Devin Nunes, who retained plenty of control over the proceedings even after he'd recused himself.
Senate
● KS-Sen: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Monday that a Senate bid was "off the table," but the Wall Street Journal reports that national GOP leaders hardly think this is a "definitive no." That's not a surprise, since as we've noted before, Pompeo said back in February that he'd "ruled out" running only to crack the door open again a month later like nothing had happened.
Pompeo himself also drew attention just two weeks ago when he showed up to the Kansas Society Annual Banquet in D.C. and told the crowd of state lawmakers, lobbyists, and businesspeople he had no plans to run for the Senate "right now." The paper writes that Pompeo very much put an emphasis on those two words, and they drew a knowing laugh from the room. One attendee says of Pompeo's appearance, "He came early, stayed late, shook every hand in the place," and added, "Sure looked like a candidate."
● TX-Sen: GOP Sen. John Cornyn went up with a TV ad during Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate attacking state Sen. Royce West, who is one of several Democrats running here. The narrator begins by calling West "a liberal politician who stood with Wendy Davis to support painful late-term abortions." The spot goes on to go after West on guns and taxes and ties him to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Gubernatorial
● PR-Gov: Outgoing Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló announced on Wednesday that he was nominating former Resident Commissioner Pedro Pierluisi for secretary of state, which would allow Pierluisi to take over as governor when Rosselló resigns on Friday. The secretary of state's post has been vacant since mid-July when Luis Rivera Marín resigned as part of the same scandal that also ended Rosselló's career. However, it's far from clear if Pierluisi has enough support to be confirmed by both houses of the legislature in time for Rosselló's departure, especially since one key leader seems ready to oppose him.
Before the appointment was announced, Senate President Thomas Rivera Schatz, who has served as interim leader of the pro-statehood New Progressive Party (PNP) since Rosselló stepped down a few weeks ago, publicly predicted that Pierluisi would not have enough votes to advance through his chamber. The New York Times writes that Rivera Schatz was also mentioned as a contender to become secretary of state, but that Rosselló seems determined to keep his rival out of the governor's chair.
Other members of both the Puerto Rican House and Senate have also come out in opposition to Pierluisi. Pierluisi, who previously served as the island's non-voting member of Congress, now works for the law firm that represents the commonwealth's federal oversight board, and his detractors argue that this would be an unacceptable conflict of interest. Pierluisi took a leave of absence from his job just before his appointment was announced.
No one knows what will happen if a new secretary of state isn't confirmed by the time that Rosselló resigns on Friday evening. The next person in the line of succession is Justice Minister Wanda Vázquez, who also has plenty of enemies of her own, including Rivera Schatz. Vázquez said Sunday that she didn't want to be governor and hoped that Rosselló would appoint a new secretary of state, but she didn't actually say that she'd turn down the job if there's no secretary of state to take it. The next person eligible to become governor is Secretary of Education Eligio Hernández, who is largely unknown to the public.
House
● CA-50: Republican El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells quietly set up an FEC committee in February for a second bid against indicted GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter, and while it's not clear when Wells publicly said he was running again, he recently took part in a candidate interview with the Valley Roadrunner.
Wells ran in last year's top-two primary and narrowly missed his chance to take on Hunter in the general election: Hunter took first place with 47 percent while Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar edged Wells 18-13 for the second-place spot. Hunter is scheduled to stand trial in September for allegedly misusing campaign finance money.
Wells argued this week that he did surprisingly well last time considering he had so little time and money, but so far, he hasn't solved that second part: Wells ended June with only $33,000 in the bank.
● IA-04, IA-Sen: 2018 Democratic House candidate J.D. Scholten has been considering either a second campaign against white supremacist Rep. Steve King or a bid against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, and it sounds like he's settled on door #1. The Storm Lake Times' Art Cullen writes that Scholten "swore off running against Sen. Joni Ernst," though there's no quote from the candidate. However, Scholten does predict that King will win renomination next year and says of 2020, "Last cycle we hoped to win. This cycle we intend to win."
Scholten hasn't announced a second bid yet, but Cullen says of that quote, "I assume that means Scholten is in." Last year, Scholten held King to a surprisingly tight 50-47 win in what's usually a safely red western Iowa seat.
● IN-05: Democrat Andrew Jacobs, who works as a prosecutor in the Marion County District Attorney's office, set up an exploratory committee this week and said he was "leaning more and more" towards running. Jacobs' late father, Andy Jacobs Sr., represented much of the city of Indianapolis for decades until he retired in 1997, and much of his old seat now makes up the neighboring 7th District. The younger Jacobs would face former state Rep. Christina Hale in the primary to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Susan Brooks in this suburban Indianapolis seat.
● MI-10: Last week, just after Rep. Paul Mitchell decided to retire, state Rep. Shane Hernandez told the Sanilac County News that he wasn't ruling out a bid for the GOP nod for this safely red seat. The paper attempted to contact state Sen. Dan Lauwers to ask about his interest, but he did not respond.
● NC-09: The NRCC launched its first TV spot against Democrat Dan McCready on Tuesday as part of what Politico says is a $2.6 million TV and radio reservation, and they try to attack McCready with a newspaper called … Daily Kos?
No, you didn’t miss any big news about us unveiling a print edition. Instead, the commercial features a piece of paper with the Daily Kos name and logo, pictures of McCready and presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren, and the headline, “Warren helps McCready win his do-over election.” (That headline comes from a 2018 piece by a Daily Kos community member.) As you can probably guess, the ad tries to connect McCready to national Democrats as well as paint McCready as a political insider.
Believe it or not, this isn’t the first time a campaign has run a TV spot using the “newspaper” Daily Kos. During the 2016 Louisiana Senate race, Foster Campbell pushed back on attacks from fellow Democrat Caroline Fayard by showing several papers with unflattering headlines about Fayard, including a print edition of something called “The Daily Kos.” Last year, North Dakota Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp also ran a commercial that cited Daily Kos to make the argument that she was one of the most effective senators and a "force for rural America," though she did not present us as a newspaper.
The NRCC’s spot is the first commercial from national Republicans ahead of the Sept. 10 special election, but it won’t be the last. The Charlotte Observer reports that the Congressional Leadership Fund has also reserved $1.2 million. So far, though, the only major outside spending on McCready’s behalf was a $600,000 buy from the Environmental Defense Fund, and Politico says that major Democratic groups haven’t reserved any TV time. However, McCready held a huge $1.77 million to $344,000 cash-on-hand lead over Republican Dan Bishop at the end of June, so Team Blue may think he can afford to fend for himself for now.
Meanwhile, a scandal that Republicans very much want to put behind them reared its ugly head again on Tuesday when operative McCrae Dowless was hit with a second indictment from Wake County prosecutors. This time, Dowless was indicted for obstruction of justice and perjury. Dowless is at the center of the election fraud operation that aided 2018 GOP nominee Mark Harris: In February, the State Board of Elections invalidated those results and ordered this special election.
● NV-04: This week, businesswoman Randi Reed joined the GOP primary to take on Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford. Reed runs a furniture company based in Sparks, which is located in the 2nd District, and is also the state business development director at the construction company Brycon.
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: Nashville holds its nonpartisan mayoral primary on Thursday, and a runoff would take place on Sept. 12 in the event that no one takes a majority of the vote. Mayor David Briley, a Democrat who is seeking his first full four-year term, has outraised all of his opponents, but Metro Councilor John Cooper has used his personal fortune to outspend the entire rest of the field in the final days of the campaign.
Cooper, the brother of local Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper, loaned himself another $900,000 and spent $950,000 during the first 27 days of July, while Briley deployed $428,000 during this time. Two other candidates, Democratic state Rep. John Ray Clemmons and former law professor Carol Swain, a conservative, spent $152,000 and $92,000, respectively.
Briley is arguing that the city has stabilized its finances since he took over last year after incumbent Megan Barry resigned because of a scandal, and he's touted the arrival of companies like Amazon. Cooper, though, has said that the city's policy of using incentives to attract businesses was a "trickle-down approach" that wasn't helping neighborhoods other than downtown. Cooper is also hoping to win over local conservatives, and he has the support of 2015 GOP mayoral candidate David Fox.
Clemmons, meanwhile, declared in his January kickoff that the mayor has fallen short when it came to addressing transportation, education, and affordable housing. Clemmons also contrasted himself with the low-key Briley, saying, "People do expect a level of charisma from their mayor," and that he hadn't done a good job "selling the city." Swain, who has the support of a number of prominent state Republicans in this very blue city, ran in the 2018 special election and lost to Briley 54-23.
● Tucson, AZ Mayor: United 4 Arizona, a group formed by United Food and Commercial Workers Local 99, is spending $125,000 on TV ads in support of City Councilwoman Regina Romero ahead of the Aug. 27 Democratic primary. Romero faces former state Sen. Steve Farley and developer Randi Dorman, and the winner will be the heavy favorite in the November general election.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Florida Democrat Richard Stone, whose 1974 victory made him the South's first popularly elected Jewish U.S. senator, died Sunday at the age of 90. Stone narrowly lost his primary for a second term in 1980 and later became Ronald Reagan's at-large ambassador to Central America and George H.W. Bush's ambassador to Denmark.
Stone served as Miami city attorney and in the state Senate before he was elected secretary of state in 1970. Four years later, Stone took part in the very crowded Democratic primary to succeed GOP Sen. Edward Gurney, who decided not to seek re-election after being indicted on corruption charges (he was later acquitted). Rep. Bill Gunter took first place with 30% of the vote, while Stone edged state House Speaker Richard Pettigrew 20-19 for second place. Florida still required a primary runoff if no one took a majority of the vote, and Stone defeated Gunter 51-49 to claim the Democratic nod.
Stone faced an unusual and ugly three-way race that fall. The Republican candidate was businessman Jack Eckerd, while the American Party nominated physician John Grady, a member of the National Board of Governors for the far-right anti-communist John Birch Society. Both of Stone's opponents unsubtly tried to use the Democrats' religion against him during the campaign: Eckard ran newspaper ads declaring that he was a Protestant while Stone was Jewish, while Grady used his campaign speeches to highlight Stone's faith while unconvincingly claiming he wouldn't try to use it to get votes. Stone ended up beating Eckerd 43-41, while Grady took 16%.
During his term in the Senate, Stone developed an unflattering reputation for indecisiveness. Stone voted to transfer the Panama Canal to Panamanian control after saying that he would oppose the treaties, and he angered labor groups by opposing the unsuccessful Labor Law Reform Act after saying he wouldn't vote on the bill.
In 1980, Stone faced several primary opponents including his old opponent Gunter, who was now the state treasurer. Stone led Gunter 32-30 in the first round, but this time, Gunter prevailed in the runoff 52-48. Gunter went on to lose a close general election to Republican Paula Hawkins, who became the first woman to represent Florida in the Senate.