We have another big primary night ahead of us! On Tuesday, voters in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Virginia go to the polls to choose nominees. South Carolina requires a June 26 runoff for contests where no one takes a majority of the vote, while Maine will be holding the nation's first ever primary using instant-runoff voting for a statewide or federal contest. (We'll discuss how that works in our ME-Gov section.)
Things kick off at 7 PM ET when polls close in South Carolina and Virginia. Maine closes at 8 PM ET, and Nevada at 10 PM ET. North Dakota requires polls to close no later than 9 PM local time (most of the state is in the Central time zone, while a portion is on Mountain time).
Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below. We also invite you to join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all of the races on the docket, and to follow our coverage on Twitter as well.
● ME-Gov (D & R): GOP Gov. Paul LePage is thankfully termed out of office, and both parties have large fields vying to replace him. This will be the first statewide primary conducted anywhere in America through an instant-runoff voting system (also known by its initials, IRV, or as “ranked-choice” voting), and it's introduced some extra unpredictability into both contests. Voters will be allowed to rank their choices—they get as many votes as there are candidates; you can see a sample ballot here—and if no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes reassigned to their voters' next preferences. Note that Maine’s secretary of state says that final results might not be available until next week.
Seven contenders are seeking the Democratic nomination. The candidates with the most resources are state Attorney General Janet Mills, who has EMILY's List's support; attorney and renewable energy entrepreneur Adam Cote; former state House Speaker Mark Eves; and progressive lobbyist Betsy Sweet, who received a hefty $700,000 thanks to the state’s generous public financing system. State Sen. Mark Dion, former state Rep. Diane Russell, and former Biddeford Mayor Donna Dion are also in, but they've raised little.
A month ago, SurveyUSA released the first and only poll of the primary and tried to simulate the instant runoff by allowing respondents to rank their preferences. They found Mills leading Eves 32-16 in round one, and they projected that she would defeat him 55-26 once the preferences of supporters of other candidates were reallocated. But Mills never treated Eves as her main opposition. Rather, she and Cote have run ads against each other while ignoring their opponents. Eves and Sweet, by contrast, announced an unusual "progressive pact" in the final week of the primary in which they asked their backers to rank the other candidate as their second choice.
On the GOP side, wealthy businessman Shawn Moody has the support of much of LePage's political network, though the governor is officially neutral. Also in the running are former state Health Commissioner Mary Mayhew, who was once seen as a LePage ally; state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, who, like Sweet, has received $700,000 in public funding; and state House Minority Leader Ken Fredette, who has struggled with fundraising. SurveyUSA's month-old poll found Moody leading Mayhew 34-19 in round one and projected he'd defeat her 65-35 in the final round.
Senate
● VA-Sen (R): Republicans aren't seriously targeting Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine this year, but they at least want to nominate someone who won't hurt the party in more winnable races further down the ballot. However, none of their candidates exactly fits the bill. The best-known contender is probably Prince Williams County Supervisor Corey Stewart, a notorious Confederacy fan boy who almost upset establishment favorite Ed Gillespie in last year's primary for governor. There's also minister E.W. Jackson, whose own long history of bizarre and offensive statements helped him lose the 2013 race for lieutenant governor by a wide margin.
Del. Nick Freitas is the most establishment-oriented contender, but he recently took to the floor of the state House to speculate that "the abortion industry" may be linked to mass shootings and said that it was the Democratic Party that had "supported Jim Crow, that supported segregation."
Gubernatorial
● NV-Gov (D): GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval is termed out, and both parties are preparing for a tough general election fight. Attorney General Adam Laxalt is the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary against state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, who has little money or outside support and has polled poorly. Things are much more competitive on the Democratic side, which features a matchup between two fellow Clark County commissioners: Steve Sisolak and Chris Giunchigliani.
Sisolak, who currently chairs the commission, has the support of former Sen. Harry Reid and Rep. Dina Titus, and he outspent Giunchigliani by a massive $6.2 million to $1.6 million margin from Jan. 1 through June 7, though the state chapter of the National Education Association and EMILY’s List have spent $1.9 million combined to boost her. Giunchigliani, who would be the first woman to serve as governor of Nevada, also picked up Hillary Clinton’s endorsement in the final weekend of the campaign.
Sisolak is a self-described moderate while Giunchigliani has a much more liberal record, but both candidates have tried to portray the other as insufficiently progressive. Polling has been limited. A mid-April survey from the Mellman Group, a Democratic pollster, for the nonpartisan Nevada Independent, gave Sisolak a huge 44-16 lead. However, EMILY's List released numbers in late May showing Sisolak ahead just 38-35.
● SC-Gov (R & D): Republican Henry McMaster was elevated from lieutenant governor to the top job in early 2017 after Nikki Haley became Trump's ambassador to the United Nations, and now he's seeking a full term. There's little doubt McMaster will finish ahead of his rivals in the primary, but he's trying to win the majority he'd need to win avert a June 26 runoff. The governor has endorsements from Trump and the NRA, something he hasn’t hesitated to play up in his campaign ads.
Still, McMaster may not be able to avoid a second round. Two of his opponents have both spent heavily: former Department of Health and Environmental Control chief Catherine Templeton, who made a name for herself as a prominent labor enemy, and wealthy businessman John Warren, who has self-funded at least $3 million. A recent independent poll from Target-Insyght showed McMaster taking 37 percent of the vote, while Templeton edged Warren by a narrow 25-20 for the second spot. Warren responded his own poll showing McMaster at just 33, with Templeton leading him by an even closer 19-17 margin. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant and former Democratic state Sen. Yancey McGill are also in, but they've raised little and have barely registered in the polls.
South Carolina is a very conservative state, but Democrats hope a backlash against Trump, as well as a long-running corruption investigation that's snared several powerful Republicans close to McMaster, will give them an opening. The state party establishment has consolidated behind state Rep. James Smith, an Army veteran who earned a Bronze Star and Purple Heart in Afghanistan. Also in the running are attorney Marguerite Willis, the wife of former Florence Mayor Frank Willis, and businessman Phil Noble. Smith has outspent his rivals, but there is no recent polling here.
House
● ME-02 (D) (51-41 Trump, 53-44 Obama): Democrats are planning to target GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin in this rural northern Maine seat that swung hard to Trump. The two main Democratic candidates are businessman and conservationist Lucas St. Clair, and state Rep. and Marine veteran Jared Golden. Local bookseller Craig Olson is also in, and while he's raised little money, ranked-choice voting could make his supporters' second choice preference very important.
Golden outspent St. Clair $330,000 to $205,000 from April 1 to May 23 (which the FEC defines as the pre-primary period), and they each had just over $100,000 left for the final weeks of the campaign. In early May, a nonprofit called the Maine Outdoor Alliance launched TV ads praising St. Clair for brokering a deal to establish the Katahdin National Monument. Golden is hoping their spending will backfire, and he's run ads portraying their involvement as a dark money group trying to buy the election for St. Clair. (The organization’s only officer was the best man at St. Clair's wedding.) The League of Conservation voters also launched a late $100,000 TV ad for St. Clair.
● NV-03 (R) (48-47 Trump, 50-49 Obama): Freshman Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen is giving up this competitive seat in the Las Vegas suburbs to run for the Senate, and her party has consolidated behind wealthy education activist and philanthropist Susie Lee. Several candidates are competition out on the GOP side, but it may be tough to stop perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who lost to Rosen 47-46 last cycle and also failed in his four previous races for public office. Tarkanian is also well-known not only from his failed campaigns but also as the son of the late legendary UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian.
While Tarkanian has his detractors in the GOP and plenty of ethical baggage, he also has lots of money left over from his aborted Senate bid against Dean Heller, which he dropped earlier this year at Donald Trump's behest. Gov. Brian Sandoval is supporting state Sen. Scott Hammond, but Tarkanian outspent Hammond $151,000 to $71,000 during the pre-primary period. Finally, there’s former local TV news reporter Michelle Mortensen, who may have some name recognition from her time on the air, but she spent just $60,000 during this time.
● NV-04 (D) (50-45 Clinton, 54-44 Obama): Freshman Democratic Rep. Ruben Kihuen decided to retire late last year after multiple women accused him of sexual harassment, and the man he ousted from this northern Las Vegas seat in 2016, former Rep. Cresent Hardy, is waging a comeback. Hardy has little opposition in his primary, but a few noteworthy Democrats are duking it out for the chance to succeed Kihuen.
Former Rep. Steven Horsford is also seeking a comeback after he lost his bid for a second term to Hardy in a 2014 upset, and the state and national Democratic establishment has consolidated behind him. Horsford has the support of Nevada's powerful Culinary Union, and the DCCC placed him on their Red to Blue list for top candidates in April.
Horsford's best-known opponent is likely state Sen. Pat Spearman, but he outspent her $234,000 to $42,000 during the pre-primary period, and outside groups haven't done much to counter the imbalance. Medicare-for-all advocate Amy Vilela spent $52,000 during this time, while former high school principle John Anzalone deployed $42,000, and University of Nevada Regent Allison Stephens spent only $12,000.
● SC-01 (R) (53-40 Trump, 58-40 Romney): Former Gov. and noted hiker Mark Sanford won this conservative seat in coastal South Carolina in a 2013 special election despite his many past issues, but he scored just a 56-44 win in the GOP primary against an underfunded state representative in 2016. Since then, Sanford has criticized Trump numerous times (despite usually voting with him), and state Rep. Katie Arrington has lit into the incumbent with an ardently pro-Trump campaign. Arrington also hasn't shied away from hitting the congressman for his 2009 sex scandal as she's implored voters to turn the page on the Mark Sanford era.
The notoriously stingy Sanford outspent Arrington by a modest $267,000 to $216,000 during the pre-primary period, but that frugality did allow him to dump $380,000 into a closing ad buy going after Arrington in the final weeks of the race. However, Sanford has curiously also run commercials arguing he supports "the president" without mentioning Trump by name, and he doesn’t sound very confident about where he stands in the polls. A third candidate, Bernie Sanders supporter Dimitri Cherny, is also running, and while he's certainly not winning the GOP nomination, he could take just enough support to keep either of his opponents from taking the majority they need to avoid a June 26 runoff.
● SC-04 (R) (60-34 Trump, 62-36 Romney): GOP Rep. Trey Gowdy decided not to seek a fifth term in this safely red seat in the Greenville and Spartanburg area, and 13 Republicans ended up running to succeed him. There's little doubt this nomination will need to be resolved in a runoff two weeks from now, but it's far from clear which two Republicans will be a part of it.
The candidate who has spent by far the most money is wealthy state Sen. William Timmons, who outspent former Spartanburg County party chair Josh Kimbrell $586,000 to $212,000 during the pre-primary period. However, the radical anti-tax Club for Growth endorsed Kimbrell in the final week of the campaign, and they launched a late TV ad hitting both Timmons and state Rep. Dan Hamilton. Hamilton spent just under $100,000 in the pre-primary period, a GOP group called Fund for a Working Congress spent $60,000 to boost him in the final days of the contest. (Update: This post initially said the total spent for Hamilton was $120,000.)
Also in the running are former state Sen. Lee Bright; Mark Burns, a televangelist and 2016 Trump surrogate; former Greenville County GOP chair Stephen Brown; and too many other people to name. None of these candidates have spent much, but anything could happen in race as crowded as this one.
● VA-07 (D) (51-44 Trump, 55-44 Romney): GOP Rep. Dave Brat scored a place in American political history when he unseated then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in their 2014 primary, but national Republicans are fretting that he's not taking his first competitive general election seriously. Former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger, who has the support of EMILY's List, and Marine veteran Dan Ward are competing to take on Brat. Spanberger outspent Ward $488,000 to $385,000 during the pre-primary period, but Ward has benefited from $250,000 in spending by the With Honor Fund.
● VA-10 (D) (52-42 Clinton, 50-49 Romney): GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock won an expensive re-election campaign last cycle even as her Northern Virginia seat swung hard against Trump, and she's a top Democratic target. The most prominent candidate opposing her is state Sen. Jennifer Wexton, who has Gov. Ralph Northam's endorsement and is the only elected official in the race.
However, several other contenders have spent plenty of money here. Former State Department official Alison Friedman unexpectedly injected $1 million of her own money late in the race, allowing her to outspend Wexton by a giant $1.2 million to $142,000 during the pre-primary period. Former Veterans Administration official Lindsey Davis Stover and former federal prosecutor Paul Pelletier deployed $285,000 and $164,000 during this time, respectively.
Army veteran Dan Helmer spent only $83,000 in the final months, but he has gotten air support from VoteVets. Perhaps more importantly, Helmer launched an ad in the final two weeks of the campaign that featured a picture of Osama bin Laden as Helmer told the audience, "After 9/11, the greatest threat to our democracy lived in a cave. Today, he lives in the White House." The White House condemned the commercial as "nothing short of reprehensible," which helped Helmer earn a whole lot of attention in the final days before the primary.
Ballot Measures
● ME Ballot: At the same time as Mainers use instant-runoff voting in primaries for the first time, they’ll also vote on Question 1, which will determine whether or not the state will keep using the new system. A victory for the Yes side would keep IRV intact, but if No carries the day, Maine would once again require just a simple plurality to win an election. (The outcome of Question 1 won't impact the results of the June primary, though.) The Yes side has spent over $1 million, while No supporters have spent exactly nothing, though most of the legislature is very much opposed to IRV. Indeed, their attempt to repeal a previous ballot measure implementing it is why this latest ballot measure—designed to thwart lawmakers’ repeal effort—is going before voters now.