N.J. elections: Record low voter turnout expected for governor's race, legislature

New Jersey voters will face some big questions at the polls on Election Day, among them: who will be the state's next leader? 

But, the overwhelming majority of voters are fed up with politics a year after a tumultuous presidential race and therefore, highly unlikely to go to the polls, political analysts say. 

"Following politics and government is something many more people are doing now than they did in the past," said John Weingart, the associate director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics and director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University. "But it's exhausting." 

Seven candidates are vying to succeed Gov. Chris Christie.

The two major-party candidates, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, a Republican and former ambassador Phil Murphy, a Democrat, have turned to national hot-button issues to grab headlines in a news cycle that's often overcome with national news.

"With the noise coming out of Washington [D.C.] right now, it's incredibly difficult for any candidate to break through," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

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Buying campaign advertisements to run regularly in New York and Philadelphia markets as a way of reaching voters can quickly run a campaign dry of funds, he added. 

"The question is, does the way these campaigns have played out suppress the voters?" Murray said. "Or does it appeal to the base?"  

For example, Hunterdon County voters came out in droves last year to elect Donald Trump as president and could be motivated by Guadagno's anti-sanctuary state stance to support her, Murray said. 

Most Republicans in the state "used to be considered moderate," Weingart said. "Moderate Republicans might have some sense that moderate Democrats align closer to their choices than the current GOP." 

A full ballot

In addition to the governor's race, New Jersey is holding elections for both houses of its Legislature for the first time since 2013.

Two public referendum questions will also be on the ballot.

One question is on the New Jersey Library Construction Bond Act, which would allow $125 million in state obligation bonds to be used to provide grants to public libraries for construction or equipment.

The second question asks for a constitutional amendment that would block any governor from rerouting environmental settlement money to the general fund.

There are also county, municipal and school board elections taking place.

"It will be a record-low turnout for a gubernatorial race," Murray said. "Voters are tired of politics and a significant number of them are going to vote party line." 

He added, "They're not paying attention to the election at all."

Turnout on the decline

A heated political climate or not, voter turnout in the state has been dwindling for years.  

Only 15 percent of the 5.4 million voters that were able to vote participated in the primary election on June 6. 

In the last three gubernatorial and legislative elections, voter participation has been steadily decreasing. In 2013, voter turnout was at 40 percent. In 2009, it was 47 percent. In 2001, it was 49 percent. 

The last time voter turnout for a governor and full Legislature election was above 50 percent was 20 years ago. In 1997, 56 percent of registered voters went to the polls.

"Voter turnout in a gubernatorial election in New Jersey is always difficult because it follows a presidential election," Murray said. 

Other factors point to historic low voter turnout, including polling and the public's perception of the governor's race. 

"Phil Murphy has been so heavily favored in public opinion polls, which is leading people to believe they know who's going to win," Weingart said. "And people don't feel strongly enough for either candidate. They figure, 'I'm not excited about the one I like or that appalled by the one I don't like.' " 

Murphy, who's been leading in the polls by double digits since the primaries, had a 16-point lead on Guadagno in the most recent Suffolk University/USA Today Network poll.  

Being Christie's second-in-command, it's been difficult for Guadagno to separate herself from the governor whose approval rating was at 14 percent, according to the same poll. 

"We've had gubernatorial races where there were stakes on the line," Murray said. "But we haven't seen that kind of race in a long time."

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Last minute push for voters

The Guadagno campaign planned to address the anticipated low voter turnout by taking a bus tour, stopping at every one of the state's 21 counties, said Ricky Diaz, Guadagno's campaign spokesperson, in a phone interview this week. 

"The lieutenant governor knows that it's important to actually shake voters' hands, ask them to vote for us, and look at them in the eye and tell them her pledge to lower property taxes," Diaz said. "Every vote counts and every hand that she shakes, or [running mate] Carlos Rendo shakes, will go a long way to ensuring victory." 

The bus tour kicked off on Thursday. Among the seven stops that day, was the Time to Eat Diner in Somerset County and a senior center in Middlesex County.

Murphy's campaign did not return requests for comment on voter turnout.

Big Democratic figures, like former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, rallied for Murphy in October. Comedian and actress Chelsea Handler also rallied for Murphy recently.

Between Friday and Monday, eight "get out the vote" rallies were planned for Murphy and his running mate, Sheila Oliver. 

Email: carrera@northjersey.com