NH Primary Source: Energy, turnout keys to closely watched Manchester mayoral race
Will Gatsas hold on for fifth term? We’ll know soon
Will Gatsas hold on for fifth term? We’ll know soon
New Hampshire Primary Source covers breaking and behind-the-scenes news and analysis on all things political in the Granite State. John DiStaso is the most experienced political writer in New Hampshire and has been writing a weekly column since 1982.
DOWN TO THE WIRE. With five days until voters go to the polls, attention is focusing on Manchester’s mayoral election far beyond the city limits.
Private polling numbers on both sides show the rematch between Mayor Ted Gatsas and former Alderman Joyce Craig is close.
What will drive the outcome? Issues are obviously all-important, but it also will come down to the proverbial blocking and tackling – getting voters to the polls.
Gatsas has been successful in recent weeks in turning the narrative to taxes, which is in his wheelhouse. Craig, however, has been driving the message that Gatsas has been a failed leader and it’s time for a change.
Energy and voter motivation count. If the results of special legislative elections held so far this year are any indication, the motivation factor appears to be on the side of the Democrats. And some of that energy is driven by opposition to President Donald Trump, who, according to recent polling, is increasingly unpopular in the state.
Democrats have won six of eight special elections so far this year, with four of those victories coming in districts in which registered Republicans outnumber Democrats.
And there is the fact that Gatsas is running for a fifth term. Is there a fatigue factor for a politician trying to stay in office for such a long period of time?
On the other hand, the quantity and quality of relationships that Gatsas has built during his long career in city government cannot be dismissed.
The intensity of on-the-ground activity being generated by the Democrats is commensurate with that of a midterm election campaign. It goes beyond Manchester.
For instance, canvassing during the weekend is scheduled for Nashua, Concord and other cities across the state.In Nashua, for instance, Massachusetts U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton will cross the border to campaign for local candidates for former gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern.
Van Ostern will then head to Manchester to campaign for Craig, following appearances on her behalf by declared presidential candidate U.S. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, potential presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio as well as New Hampshire Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan.
The Democratic National Committee has weighed with what it says is a “five-figure investment” for Democrats “up and down the ticket.”
Mail has been flying on both sides throughout the campaign. This week, the recently-formed Tax Cap PAC, headed by former state Rep. Will Infantine, sent out citywide “voter guide” mailings focusing on taxes and promoting Gatsas, Alderman-at-Large Joe Kelly Levasseur and School Board member-at-large Rich Girard.
The Coalition of Manchester Taxpayers has also been actively involved.
Republicans are unfazed by the out-of-staters rolling in to help Craig. They tell us not to expect “big names” to be going door-to-door with Gatsas this weekend. It will be all about Gatsas himself and volunteers. Nothing “sexy,” they say -- just the necessary grunt work.
Which strategy will work? Which side has the more effective ground game? Who has been more successful in describing the issues that prompt voters to turn out? We’ll know Tuesday night.
THE GATSAS ‘LOOPHOLE’ BILL. Democrats are trying to revive a 2016 campaign finance violation by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas during his 2016 campaign for governor by promoting a bill they say will close the “Gatsas loophole.” Click here.
SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTIONS. The ninth and tenth New Hampshire House special elections of 2017 are on tap for Tuesday. Click here.
MacKENZIE HIRES CONSULTANTS. Former AFL-CIO president and current state Rep. Mark MacKenzie is now “all in” as a Democratic candidate for the 1st District U.S. House seat being vacated by former U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. New Hampshire Primary Source has learned that MacKenzie, who announced his candidacy earlier this week, has hired the same consulting firm that handled Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign – and many other national and state campaigns – as his campaign consultant. Click here.
PROTECT FREEDOM PAC. Veteran Republican political strategist Michael Biundo of Manchester was announced Wednesday as the lead consultant of a new political action committee to boost “current and future allies” of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Click here.
MASSACHUSETTS COMMISSION MOVES FORWARD ON ‘FALLING BACK.’ A Massachusetts commission Wednesday voted that the Commonwealth look seriously at joining the Atlantic Time Zone, effectively establishing daylight savings time year-round and ending the practice of moving the setting clocks back in the fall and ahead in the spring. Click here.
COHEN GETS ROBO CALL. Veteran Democratic activist and former state Sen. Burt Cohen told New Hampshire Primary Source Wednesday night that he received a robo call from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee polling support for potential congressional candidate Chris Pappas. Click here.
(John DiStaso can be reached at jdistaso@hearst.com or distasoj@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @jdistaso and on Facebook: Facebook.com/JohnDiStasoWMUR.)