The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TN-Sen: Well, well, well... after ruling out a Senate campaign to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Bob Corker in late September, former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen reopened the door on Monday when he told the Associated Press that he is considering it after several people implored him to do so. A wealthy former mayor of Nashville, Bredesen would easily be the top choice of many state and national Democrats after ending his tenure with broad popularity in this conservative state. Indeed, in his 2006 re-election bid, Bredesen won a 69-30 landslide and carried every one of Tennessee's 95 counties. That campaign marked the last statewide race Democrats have won in Tennessee.
Campaign Action
Of course, even if Bredesen does run again, it will be dramatically harder for him to win next year. Tennessee has become increasingly hostile to Democrats up and down the ballot since 2006, with Donald Trump carrying it by a brutal 61-35 spread. Voters are also typically far more willing to split their tickets in state races than in federal ones, and Bredesen would face attacks tying him to unpopular national Democratic leaders. Republican ex-Gov. Linda Lingle tried this same move in Hawaii's 2012 Senate race, but she lost by a huge margin in that deep-blue state, even though she had won her 2006 re-election race in a landslide.
The 73-year-old Bredesen would also be running his first campaign in 12 years, but he still brings a lot of advantages in a state where partisan realignment has devastated the Democratic bench in recent years. Bredesen would almost certainly start out with a powerful fundraising network and widespread name recognition, and he would immediately draw interest from national Democrats who are eager to put a third GOP-held seat into play in their longshot bid for a 51-seat Senate majority next year. Iraq War veteran James Mackler has been running for the Democratic nomination for months, and several notable Democrats have also expressed interest. However, Bredesen will likely weigh heavily on their decisions on whether or not to run.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, former Rep. Stephen Fincher has been conducting a statewide listening tour while he considers whether to join the primary. Fincher recently stated that he's "very optimistic" and expects to announce between Tuesday and Friday of this week whether or not he'll run.
3Q 2017 Fundraising
We're collecting the Senate reports in our quarterly fundraising roundup chart, which we'll update continuously. We'll have a House fundraising chart soon following Oct. 15's reporting deadline.
● AL-Sen: Doug Jones (D): $1.3 million raised, $1 million cash-on-hand
● IN-Sen: Todd Rokita (R): $450,000 raised, $2.4 million cash-on-hand
● MI-Sen, MI-06: Fred Upton (R): $527,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand
● ND-Sen: Tom Campbell (R): $570,0000 raised (may include self-funding)
● NV-Sen: Dean Heller (R-inc): $1.2 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand; Jacky Rosen (D): $1.2 million raised
● PA-Sen: Lou Barletta (R): $635,000 raised, $1 million cash-on-hand
Senate
● CA-Sen: Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna had previously urged progressives to challenge Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein next year, and he unsurprisingly just endorsed state Senate President Kevin de León, who kicked off his campaign on Sunday. However, de León's entry into the race hasn't completely dissuaded other Democrats from jumping in. Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer declared that he's still considering running even after de León launched his campaign, though it's unclear just how seriously he's looking at the prospect of becoming a candidate himself after spending many millions to elect environmentalist candidates to office over the years.
● MO-Sen: Republican state Rep. Paul Curtman had formed an exploratory committee to challenge Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill back in July, but he recently revealed that he was no longer considering a Senate campaign and would instead look at the state auditor's race for next year. Curtman's decision not to run is unsurprising in light of state Attorney General Josh Hawley's recent entry into the Republican primary for Senate. Although Hawley starts off as an obvious GOP primary front-runner, he may yet still draw a notable rival.
● MT-Sen: On Saturday, recently retired Yellowstone County District Court Judge Russell Fagg announced he would indeed join the primary for the Republican nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester next year. Fagg stepped down from the bench this month but had been raising money for his exploratory committee for several months, making it obvious that he was keen on running (ethics rules prevented him from formally declaring his candidacy while still on the bench).
Fagg has served as a local judge for over two decades and likely starts off with limited name recognition for a statewide race. However, he has already earned the endorsement of all three former Republican governors who are still alive: Marc Racicot, Judy Martz, and Stan Stephens. He also garnered the support of ex-Reps. Denny Rehberg and Rick Hill, indicating he has substantial ties to the state party establishment.
Fagg won't have an uncontested path to the nomination, though. State Auditor Matt Rosendale is likely his biggest threat due to existing name recognition and fundraising capacity, while state Sen. Albert Olszewski and businessman Troy Downing are also in the running.
Gubernatorial
● GA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle released an early October poll from McLaughlin & Associates that shows him with a dominant lead in in the Republican primary for next year's open gubernatorial contest. The survey finds Cagle leading Secretary of State Brian Kemp by 41-12, while no other candidate tops 4 percent. Their numbers suggest that a substantial element of Cagle's huge lead comes from name recognition, with Cagle having a 52 percent favorable rating compared to just 9 percent unfavorable; just 32 percent of primary voters like Kemp, compared to 4 percent who don't.
Of course, we would be remiss if we did not reiterate just how much we don't like McLaughlin, thanks to their awful track record of historic polling misfires. McLaughlin was notoriously the pollster for former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014, when they gave him a huge lead only for him to lose the primary to insurgent challenger Dave Brat in Virginia's 7th Congressional District.
Nevertheless, Cagle's long tenure as lieutenant governor gives him a substantially higher profile compared to his primary rivals, and these latest numbers are certainly plausible at this stage in the race where candidates have yet to begin spending heavily on TV ads. Whether Cagle can maintain that lead if or when his opponents finally get their names out is another matter, though.
● ME-Gov: Republican Sen. Susan Collins' recent announcement that she won't join next year's gubernatorial contest has thrown the race wide open, and Michael Shepherd at the Bangor Daily News recently reported on the latest developments. Shepherd relays that state Senate President Mike Thibodeau, former Secretary of State Charlie Summers, and lobbyist Josh Tardy all told him that they are now considering whether or not to join the Republican primary.
Thibodeau gave no timeframe for when he might decide, while Tardy, who had pushed for Collins to run, said his choice isn't imminent. Meanwhile, Summers says he's "seriously" considering a gubernatorial campaign and will decide soon. Summers was the GOP's 2012 Senate nominee against Democratic-aligned independent Angus King but lost in a landslide; he was also an unsuccessful candidate for southern Maine's Democratic-leaning 1st District in 2008, 2004, and 1994.
On the Democratic side, Shepherd reports that wealthy businessman Adam Lee has cooled to the idea of running despite considering it for a while. Lee declared that he may wait two or three months for the field to congeal before deciding whether to jump in or not.
● NJ-Gov: Republican Kim Guadagno's latest ad attacks Democrat Phil Murphy by making a play on the old adage known as "Murphy's Law," which typically states, "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong." Guadagno's spot features a teacher asking her young class if they know what Murphy's Law is, to which a student replies, "If anything can be taxed, Phil Murphy will tax it. And if it's already taxed, he'll raise it!" The teacher then queries the class for examples, to which they chime in by responding with various forms of taxes that Murphy supposedly wants to raise. The spot then closes by arguing via the students that "Phil Murphy will be the only one who can afford to live in New Jersey" if the ad's version of "Murphy's Law" goes into effect.
● NV-Gov: Harry Reid has weighed in on who he'd like to see Nevada Democrats nominate for governor next year, and he's going with Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak. In the same interview, Reid referred to Sisolak's primary rival, fellow Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, as "my friend," but says he told her that he was backing Sisolak and that, naturally, he expects his guy to come away with the nomination.
● OH-Gov: State Supreme Court Justice Bill O'Neill, a Democrat, has been considering whether to run for the open governor's office next year, and he recently said, "I want to do it," in an interview with cleveland.com. O'Neill faces mandatory retirement next year after turning 70 this past spring, and he recently posted on Facebook that he has rented a venue for Oct. 29 to reveal his decision, which strongly suggests that he will indeed join the race, if he's going through all that trouble.
Several other notable Democrats are already running, but there is no obvious front-runner, and O'Neill said he didn't think any of them could win. He previously stated over the summer that he was told Richard Cordray, who is the director of the national Consumer Finance Protection Bureau and a former state attorney general, would run. However, O'Neill now claims he has no idea about Cordray's plans, but O'Neill's newfound eagerness to run could be a sign that Cordray himself won't ultimately join the race.
● WI-Gov: Former longtime Sen. Herb Kohl, a Democrat, announced on Monday that he was endorsing state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers for the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Gov. Scott Walker next year. Evers is likely the most prominent Democrat running, but he faces a primary field that includes state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, former party chair Matt Flynn, state Rep. Dana Wachs, and businessman Andy Gronik.
House
● FL-27: Miami City Commissioner Ken Russell, who'd been exploring a bid for Florida's open 27th District since May, has now officially joined the race, making him the sixth Democrat to enter the primary. Despite the crowded field of heavyweight contenders, Russell insists that his internal polling shows him with a path to victory, and he just may: In 2015, he upset a much better-funded and better-known opponent (who in fact was the wife of the incumbent) to win his seat on the Miami commission. Russell also has another claim to fame: He's a champion yo-yo player. Safe to say he's the only person with that résumé line in our candidate database.
● MI-11: It's Christmas in October: Santa impersonator and former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who'd been considering a second comeback bid, now says he's forming an exploratory committee for Michigan's open 11th District, which he accidentally represented for a single term earlier this decade. A large number of fellow Republicans are already running, though, and presumably none of them "have a problem figuring out which one I really am, Santa Claus or Kerry Bentivolio," as the ex-congressman once confessed in a deposition.
● MN-08: Former FBI analyst Leah Phifer is bound to give Minnesota Democrats some heartburn as she presses forward with an intra-party challenge to vulnerable Rep. Rick Nolan, but at least it seems they won't have to worry about a primary: Phifer says that she plans to abide by the Democratic Party's endorsement process, which means she'd drop out of the race if she doesn't win the support of delegates at a district-level convention next year, likely in May. It's not entirely clear what Phifer's beef is with Nolan, though, beyond complaining that a bill Nolan is pushing to complete a land swap sought by local mining interests is "undermining due process." Phifer also describes herself as a "millennial," in contrast to Nolan, who is 73.
● NH-01: Businessman Deaglan McEachern says he's forming an exploratory committee to look at a bid for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, joining a large crowd of Democrats who are eyeing this now-open swing seat. While this would be McEachern's first run for office, WMUR reporter John DiStaso describes McEachern's father, Paul, as a prominent party leader and notes that the elder McEachern unsuccessfully ran for governor four times (three times in the 1980s and most recently in 2004). Deaglan McEachern's message may not quite be what Democratic primary voters want to hear, though: In an interview, he said, "Republicans I've talked to are great people who care about the country. It's when we each get on separate sides and start throwing rocks that it becomes disappointing."
● PA-18: Former prosecutor Conor Lamb, who just stepped down from his position as an assistant U.S. attorney, is the latest Democrat to enter the race for Pennsylvania's soon-to-be-vacant 18th District. Lamb is a Marine veteran whose most high-profile case involved the successful prosecution of a fellow officer who'd lied about sexual misconduct charges. Lamb is also a nephew of Pittsburgh Controller Michael Lamb, which likely makes him the most prominent Democrat running so far. In lieu of a primary, local leaders of both parties will select their nominees for the anticipated special election, which has not yet been scheduled but is likely to take place early next year.
Legislative
● Special Elections: As ever, Johnny Longtorso's got the goods:
Massachusetts Senate, Bristol & Norfolk: This is an open Democratic seat stretching from Medfield to Seekonk. The Democratic nominee is Paul Feeney, a former Foxboro selectman. The Republican nominee is Jacob Ventura, a state legislative aide. Also on the ballot is independent Joe Shortsleeve, a reporter and media consultant who says he voted for both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump last year. This seat went 52-41 for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and 50-48 for Barack Obama in 2012.