[Interview] Brookings Institution’s Pak: Chances of war with North Korea “almost zero”

Posted on : 2017-10-15 12:57 KST Modified on : 2017-10-15 12:57 KST
SK-Korea Foundation Chair dismisses possibility of new military conflict on Korean Peninsula
Jung H. Pak
Jung H. Pak

Jung H. Pak, who was appointed early last month as SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at the Brookings Institution, said that despite rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, there is almost no possibility of war.

“Nobody wants war,” Pak stressed in a talk with South Korean correspondents at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC, on Oct. 12.

“There may be a 1% chance that anything could happen, but the possibility of war within the next few months, or even the next year, is almost zero,” she added.

Pak previously served as deputy national intelligence officer for East Asia at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and portfolio manager for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) East Asia & Pacific Mission Center.

Pak also noted that China and Russia “have made it clear they will not tolerate instability, while senior officials in the US administration have said they want a peaceful resolution to the North Korea issue.”

“None of the rational people in Washington – such as the people at think tanks or former bureaucrats – is calling for war,” she explained.

Pak described North Korean leader Kim as “rational” and stressed that he “would not behave in a suicidal manner.”

“His top priority is his regime’s survival,” she said, dismissing the possibility of a preemptive strike by Pyongyang.

Regarding the potential use of a military option by the US, Pak observed that South Korea “is a very cosmopolitan country where 200,000 Americans reside, along with Europeans and Chinese.”

“Risking those people’s lives to carry out a surprise attack is out of the question,” she said. Pak predicted little chance of a military clash between South and North over the next few years.

“With the exception of hacking incidents, Kim Jong-un hasn’t done anything [to attack] South Korea since the box mine incident in 2015,” she noted.

Of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming Asia tour schedule early next month, she said, “If he stays in Japan for two days, he can’t just stay in South Korea for one. He needs to treat South Korea and Japan equally.”

In a contribution to the Congressional news website The Hill the same day, Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) president Donald Manzullo and researcher Troy Stangarone suggested that the US administration propose a 90-day “pause” with North Korea where both sides would refrain from actions that escalate current tensions, with the “full support of the United Nations Security Council.”

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

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