CHARLES STILE

Stile: As Menendez' trial looms, both parties plot for his seat

Charles Stile
NorthJersey

U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is in a spot where no career politician wants to be.

Federal prosecutors want to put him in a prison cell. And operatives in both parties are already measuring for curtains in his Washington office.

Abbe Lowell, left, attorney for Sen. Bob Menendez, speaking to the media in 2015.

Menendez, 63, whose trial on federal corruption charges is set to begin Wednesday in Newark, has no intentions of going anywhere except back to work.

He has steadfastly maintained his innocence of charges that he put his Senate office at the service of friend and donor, Florida ophthalmologist Salomon Melgen, in exchange for a lavish list of gifts — free air travel; trips to Melgen's villa at a Dominican Republic resort; and hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign donations.

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"After charges were filed, Senator Menendez said in court and to the public that he was not guilty and looked forward to showing that the allegations against him were false. Now, as the trial approaches, he will have the opportunity to do that so all can see,'' his attorney, Abbe Lowell said. "The senator is in good spirits, has faith in the American system of justice, and is confident that when all the facts are heard, he will be vindicated."

For nearly four decades, Menendez, the son of Cuban immigrant parents, clawed his way up through Hudson County politics, first as a member of the Union City school board.

He went from mayor to legislator to Congress and the Senate in 2006. During his climb, Menendez became a powerful caretaker of the North Jersey Democrats, and a counterweight to the ascendant South Jersey political bloc.

Now, with his career in peril, Menendez represents a political opportunity.

Both parties are spinning hypothetical scenarios of a New Jersey political landscape without Menendez and how they could benefit from his departure.  

Republicans hope to shore up their ranks

Republicans are salivating over the prospect of padding their slim, two-vote majority in the Senate.

A number of close calls and close collapses — the last attempt to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act came up one vote shy in late July — has underscored the importance of having a bigger cushion of votes in the unpredictable, wild ride of the Donald Trump era.

Republicans are banking on a long-shot scenario where Menendez is convicted sometime this fall and will vacate the seat, either through cutting a plea deal with prosecutors or if the Republican Senate moves quickly to expel him.

Since the task of filling a vacated Senate seat would fall to the sitting governor, Republicans hope that Menendez will abandon his seat sometime before term-limited Republican Gov. Chris Christie leaves office on Jan. 16. If that happens, Christie is expected to pick a Republican replacement.

President Donald Trump speaks to Gov. Chris Christie and others during an opioid and drug abuse listening session in March in the Cabinet Room of the White House.

But to many, expelling Menendez before Christie leaves office remains a GOP pipe dream. For one thing, the Senate Ethics Committee, which would investigate and recommend a possible removal, has traditionally moved slowly.

The Senate moved to expel New Jersey Sen. Harrison "Pete" Williams in May 1982, 10 months after he was convicted in the notorious "ABSCAM" investigation. Williams was captured on tape accepting a loan from an FBI informant disguised as an Arab Sheikh.

Expulsion is rare, in part because it requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate. Expelling Menendez, then, would require Republicans to enlist the support of 15 Democrats.

Aware of the steep math they face, Republican operatives are planning to turn up the heat on 10 incumbent Senate Democrats up for reelection last year in states that President Trump won and a handful where Democrat Hillary Clinton barely won.

"If Sen. Menendez is convicted, Senate Democrats will have a choice to make — whether to stand with a convicted felon, or do the right thing,'' said Bob Salera, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. And the "right thing,'' would mean pledging to support expulsion.

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for Cook Political Report, an independent, Washington, D.C.-based firm that handicaps political races, says the strategy could be effective in some cases. 

"It's going to be hard to face voters in a Republican state, saying you voted against censuring or expelling a guy who has been convicted,'' Duffy said.

Yet, other analysts say turning a possible Menendez conviction into a national election issue is unlikely with the ever present Trump devouring the daily news cycle. Trump, with his dismal standing in the polls, his divisive rhetoric ranging from Charlottesville to pardon of the Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio and his so far, thin resume of achievement,  will loom large over the 2018 midterm contests.

While Democrats may be forced to distance themselves from Menendez, Republican challengers will have to decide how far to run away from the president, the party's standard bearer.

"I think this is going to be a referendum on Donald Trump, not senator Menendez,'' said Jim Manley, a Democratic consultant who served as senior communications adviser for former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada).

Democrats hope for Murphy

If convicted, most Democrats expect Menendez to appeal and exhaust all legal options before resigning — a process that could take him well into next year.

Gubernatorial candidate and Democrat Philip D. Murphy, who enjoys a 27-point lead in the polls over Republican Kim Guadagno, as well as a 3-to-1 advantage in cash, is favored to succeed Christie this November. The possibility that a new Governor Murphy picking a replacement has many Democrats jockeying in a just-in-case mode.

Among them is former Sen. Robert Torricelli, who ended his 2002 re-election campaign after the Senate Ethics Committee "severely admonished" him for taking gifts from a longtime campaign contributor.

Former Sen. Robert Torricelli as seen in September 2013.

Congressman Donald Norcross, who represents the First District in South Jersey, has been touted as another strong possibility.

Norcross' brother, George, is the state's most powerful unelected Democratic official, and his brother has been supportive of Menendez throughout the legal battle — both held a fundraiser for Menendez earlier this year.

But George is holding a Sept. 23 fundraiser for Murphy and the Democratic Governors' Association in Cherry Hill, an event that is being seen as an attempt boost his brother's chances.

Bob Sommer, a spokesman for George Norcross, said the fundraiser is part of the routine party-building work Norcross has done for the Democratic Party and viable candidates for governor.

Donald Norcross meets with The Record edit board on Monday, July 17, 2017.

"The fundraiser next month is emblematic... of the commitment he has,'' Sommer said. Other names that have circulated are  Rep. Josh Gottheimer of the Fifth Congressional District; Frank Pallone, the longtime congressman from the Seventh Congressional District; and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop.

Of course, if Menendez is acquitted then the discussion is moot.

But even if cleared, Menendez faces more political headaches.

The Senate Ethics Committee, which halted its own probe of Menendez's gifts from Melgen two years ago in deference to the federal investigators, will likely resume its work, armed this time with the trial testimony.

The panel could then possibly release its findings during Menendez's 2018 reelection campaign. That prospect, could in theory, weaken his reelection chances. Some Democrats might be emboldened to challenge him in a primary.

But most Democrats lack the money or the stomach to take on Menendez, a formidable fundraiser and take-no-prisoner campaigner, some observers say. He already has $3.7 million in his campaign account, records show.

Michael Soliman, a political consultant and longtime Menendez ally, said the "senator will outwork every step (his opponent) of the way and stand on his record of fighting for New Jersey for the past 42 years."