Tennessee voters to choose at least two new members of Congress next year

Michael Collins
Nashville Tennessean

WASHINGTON – Next year’s elections will offer Tennesseans something they haven’t seen in close to a decade: The guarantee of at least two new faces in Congress.

U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C.

Last week’s announcements by Republican Reps. John J. Duncan Jr. of Knoxville and Diane Black of Gallatin that they will not seek re-election means that at least two of the state’s nine seats in the U.S. House will be open next year.

The last time that happened was in 2010, when Reps. Bart Gordon, Zach Wamp and John Tanner chose not to run again, guaranteeing three new members in the Tennessee delegation. Republican Scott DesJarlais became the delegation’s fourth new member that year when he defeated Democratic incumbent Lincoln Davis.

Tennessee Democratic and Republican leaders say winning the two open seats will be a priority next year.

But both seats are in congressional districts that are among the most heavily Republican in the country, posing a serious obstacle for Democrats looking to regain their footing in a state that has moved further to the right in recent years.

More:Diane Black enters race for governor of Tennessee

Regardless, Democrats see the two openings as clear opportunities.

“An open seat is a little easier to win than running against an incumbent,” said Mary Mancini, chairwoman of the Tennessee Democratic Party.

Plus, “the Republicans have really messed up on issues that are important to voters in Tennessee, primarily health care,” Mancini said. “They, especially Diane Black, have spent years complaining and voting to try to repeal Obamacare. When the opportunity arose for them to fix it, they had nothing. And so, we look at that situation, and we think Black has been in Washington for too long and the voters of Tennessee are looking for a change.”

Democrat Joshua Williams, a clinical psychologist from Knoxville, already has announced plans to run for the Knoxville-based 2nd District seat that Duncan is vacating after nearly three decades. Renée Victoria Hoyos, executive director of the Tennessee Clean Water Network, also has been talking with state Democratic leaders about jumping into the race.

Mancini said she also has been in communication with a Democrat who is interested in running for the 6th District seat that Black is leaving to run for governor. Mancini declined to say who the prospective candidate is.

Diane Black

Republicans also are getting in line for both seats.

Knox County Mayor Tim Burchett already has filed paperwork to run in the 2nd District and formally announced his candidacy last Saturday. State Rep. Jimmy Matlock of Lenoir City also has announced that he's running.

Possible GOP candidates for Black’s seat include state Sen. Mark Green, whose nomination as Army secretary earlier this year proved so controversial that he eventually withdrew; state Rep. Judd Matheny of Tullahoma; political strategist and frequent CNN commentator Scottie Nell Hughes; and former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose.

More:Rep. John J. Duncan will not seek re-election next year after three decades in office

Scott Golden, chairman of the Tennessee Republican Party, predicted the GOP could see a crowded field for both seats.

Thirteen Republicans ran in last year’s primary for an open seat in West Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District. David Kustoff of Germantown won the primary and then cruised to victory in November to succeed Republican Stephen Fincher, who was retiring.

Next year, “the goal for the Republican Party will be getting everybody back together behind whoever emerges from the Republican primary,” Golden said.

If that happens, “I like our chances of holding those seats,” he said.

Golden has good reason to be optimistic.

Tennessee’s 2nd District has not sent a Democrat to Congress since 1855 and is the 28th most Republican district in the nation, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. In last year’s presidential race, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 35.4 percentage point margin in the district.

The 6th District is the 23rd most Republican district in the country, according to Cook. Trump won that district by a 48 percentage point margin over Clinton.

Kent Syler, political scientist at Middle Tennessee State University

Given that Trump’s national approval ratings have fallen to a record low, Democrats will almost certainly try to tie GOP congressional candidates to their unpopular leader, said Kent Syler, a political scientist at Middle Tennessee State University.

“National Democrats next year will try to do in 2018 what Republicans did successfully in 2010 and make the mid-term election a national referendum on the incumbent president,” Syler said.

The GOP had great success with that strategy across the nation and in Tennessee in 2010.

Nationally, Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House – their largest gain in 72 years – and won back the majority that they had lost four years earlier.

In Tennessee, the GOP won all three open seats, including the two vacated by Democrats Gordon and Tanner, and gained the majority in the state’s congressional delegation. Before the election, Democrats held a 5-4 majority. Afterward, Republicans had a 7-2 advantage.

But what worked well for Republicans in 2010 may not work at all for Tennessee Democrats next year, said Syler, who served as Gordon’s chief of staff.

More:Who might replace Congressman John J. Duncan?

More:4 GOP contenders who could replace U.S. Rep. Diane Black in Congress

Tennessee has become a more Republican state than it was in 2010, “and where Barack Obama’s job performance usually lagged behind the national average in Tennessee, Donald Trump’s job performance is higher in Tennessee than it is nationally,” Syler said.

One possible clue to how well Democrats will do in Tennessee next year could come from Trump’s approval rating in the state, Syler said.

A Vanderbilt University poll released May 30 showed Trump with a 52 percent approval rating in Tennessee, down from 60 percent just weeks after last November’s election but still higher than his national ratings. A Gallup poll released last week put his national approval rating at 36 percent.

“Will it erode in Tennessee the way it is eroding nationally?” Syler said. “That is going to be a key number to watch.”