The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MN-01: Politico's Daniel Newhauser reported Friday that vulnerable Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn has not disclosed paying any rent on the southern Minnesota campaign office he's used since 2013, an arrangement that may violate campaign finance laws. While this might sound like a run-of-the-mill campaign finance story, we promise you it's anything but.
The story starts with the Brett's Building in Mankato, Minnesota, a rehabilitated department store that's been owned for most of the past seven years by a Hagedorn donor named Gordon Awsumb. Newhauser writes that both Hagedorn's campaign and Awsumb have given "conflicting accounts of why no payments have been disclosed," saying it "adds up to a portrait of, at best, highly irregular or sloppy spending practices; at worst, it's a breach of campaign finance law."
As Newhauser explains, campaigns are required to pay market rates for all facilities they use. Space can be donated, but it must be reported as an "in-kind contribution" to the FEC. Like regular donations, however, in-kind contributions are limited to $5,600 per election cycle, so the overage on any donated rental worth more than that over a two-year period must be paid for by the campaign.
Hagedorn, who unsuccessfully ran for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in 2014 and 2016 before finally winning it last cycle, has identified the Suite 7 office in the Brett's Building as his headquarters in his FEC paperwork for seven years, but he's never listed a single rent payment or in-kind contribution for it.
So far, neither Hagedorn's team or Awsumb have given a convincing explanation. Thomas Datwyler, who handles the Hagedorn campaign's finances, first told Politico he was "pretty positive" the congressman uses only a "very minuscule" portion of Suite 7, claiming it had a rent value of less than $200 per cycle, which is the minimum amount the FEC requires to be reported. Newhauser, however, observes that such a rental would amount to no more than a few square feet, which would make for an absurdly small office space.
It's unlikely, shall we say, that Hagedorn was able to wage four campaigns for Congress in what would be the world's tiniest office. Indeed, Hagedorn's social media account and news outlets have repeatedly posted pictures of the campaign operating out of what seems to be a normal-sized office, complete with a couch and a cutout of Ronald Reagan.
Yet even if Hagedorn managed to somehow get by with a location that cardboard Ronnie couldn't lay down in, it wouldn't matter: As Newhauser writes, Awsumb donated more than $200 in cash to Hagedorn, so a micro-office space would still need to be disclosed to the FEC as an in-kind contribution. Datwyler said he would follow up but never did.
Awsumb himself only added to the confusion. After first claiming that the space amounted to a storage locker where Hagedorn "stored signs," he later emailed Politico, "The Hagedorn Campaign does not now and has never in the past leased office space in the Mankato Place Complex/Brett's building." Awsumb continued, "No rent-free office space has been provided to the Hagedorn Campaign."
In a line that almost channeled Being John Malkovich, Awsumb even claimed that "Suite 7 does not exist as a physical office location within the building." However, in 2018, the state GOP sent out invitations to a Hagedorn event in what seems to have been a very real Suite 7.
To make matters even stranger, it's possible that Awsumb's claim that Suite 7 is a mere figment of our collective imagination is true—at least as of today. Politico ventured to the Brett's Building and found that Suite 7 appears to have been absorbed, Borg-like, into another office. Whatever plane of reality the suite exists on, however, Newhauser detected no sign of Hagedorn's campaign in the building, even though his September FEC filing listed Suite 7 as his office.
Hagedorn, wherever he's campaigning from, faces a tough re-election campaign in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District against Democrat Dan Feehan, who has already been attacking the incumbent's ethics on other grounds.
3Q Fundraising
• MI-Sen: John James (R): $14 million raised
• CA-39: Young Kim (R): $1.8 million raised
• IL-13: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D): $1.5 million raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand
• NJ-07: Tom Kean Jr. (R): $1.36 million raised
Senate
● AK-Sen: While Alaska'sU.S. Senate race looked like just an afterthought for both parties asrecently as a few months ago, major outside groups on each side arecontinuing to book millions here just weeks ahead of Election Day.
Politico's James Arkin reports that a newly-established Democratic group called North Star has launched a $4 million ad buy in support of Al Gross, an independent who is running as the Democratic nominee. The first ad stars a local breast cancer survivor,and she takes Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to task for voting to letinsurance companies deny coverage due to pre-existing conditions. Arkinalso reports that the conservative Senate Leadership Fund will spend$3.7 million here to protect Sullivan, which would bring the super PAC'stotal planned spending for this race to $5.3 million.
While SLF's investment gives Sullivan's sidemore firepower, the incumbent is still being very badly outspent.OpenSecrets reports that Gross' allies have already spent $6.6 millionin this race, a figure that doesn't yet account for North Star's newoffensive, while the only major pro-Sullivan spending was theaforementioned $1.5 million buy from SLF.
Gross also announced that he raised a massive $9 million during the third quarter of 2020—over $1 million more that Sullivan brought in during his entire 2014 campaign. Sullivan hasn't announced his own haul, but Arkin writes that his campaign "has said they expect to be outraised and outspent by a staggering, five-to-one margin."
All of this spending comes despite the factthat very few polls have been released here over the last month, thoughthe few numbers we've seen have shown a close race. In late September, aHarstad Research poll for Al Gross' allies at Independent Alaska showedSullivan up just 46-45. Donald Trump also led only 47-46, which is not only a big drop from his 51-37 victory here in 2016, it would be the closest presidential contest ever in the Last Frontier state, narrowly topping Richard Nixon's 51-49 win over John F. Kennedy in 1960.
The local firm Alaska Survey Research also released its own poll recently that showed Sullivan and Trump up 48-44 and 50-46, respectively.
● IA-Sen: Republican incumbent Joni Ernst's new commercial stars her colleague,Chuck Grassley, praising her as a bipartisan senator who looks out forfarmers. Grassley has long been an incredibly popular figure in Iowapolitics, though he may have lost some of his luster in recent years: Amid-September Selzer & Co. survey for the Des Moines Register gave Grassley a 48-35 favorable rating, and the paper says this is the first year he's been under 50% since the pollster began asking this question in 1998.
● MT-Sen: Democrat Steve Bullock's new commercial features a cross-party endorsement from former Montana Secretary of State Bob Brown, who was the 2004 Republican nominee for governor.Brown tells the audience, "We need leaders who will serve the people,and not just their political party," and declares that Montana is one ofthe nation's best-run states.
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: Latino Decisions (D) for Education Reform Now Advocacy: Mark Kelly (D): 47, Martha McSally (R-inc): 42 (48-45 Biden) (March: 48-36 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: SurveyUSA for KUSA and Colorado Politics: John Hickenlooper (D): 48, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 39 (50-40 Biden)
- GA-Sen-A: University of Georgia for Atlanta Journal-Constitution: David Perdue (R-inc): 49, Jon Ossoff (D): 41, Shane Hazel (L): 3 (48-46 Trump) (Sept.: 47-45 Perdue)
- GA-Sen-B: University of Georgia for Atlanta Journal-Constitution:Raphael Warnock (D): 28, Kelly Loeffler (R-inc): 22, Doug Collins (R):21, Ed Tarver (D): 4, Matt Lieberman (D): 3, Brian Slowinski (L): 2(48-46 Trump) (Sept.: Loeffler: 24, Collins: 21, Warnock: 20)
- KS-Sen: VCreek/AMG (R) (no client): Barbara Bollier (D): 45, Roger Marshall (R): 42, Jason Buckley (L): 2
- MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for ABC 6 News: Tina Smith (D-inc): 44, Jason Lewis (R): 37 (47-40 Biden) (Sept.: 47-36 Smith)
- NH-Sen: Saint Anselm College: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 53, Corky Messner (R): 38 (53-41 Biden)
- TX-Sen: YouGov for the University of Texas and Texas Tribune: John Cornyn (R-inc): 50, MJ Hegar (D): 42 (50-45 Trump) (Sept.: 50-40 Cornyn)
GA-Sen-B: While this poll isquite a bit worse for Joe Biden and Democrat Jon Ossoff that UGA'sSeptember survey, it does find Raphael Warnock moving from third placeto first in the all-party primary. Other recent polls have also shownWarnock taking first as well.
KS-Sen: VCreek/AMG tells us that, while they're polling for several Republican candidatesin other states and worked in Sunflower State politics as recently aslast cycle, they have no client for this survey or any of their otherKansas House polls (see our House Polls section below).
Gubernatorial
● Polls:
House
● IA-01, MT-Sen: The UnitedAssociation of Union Plumbers and Pipefitters is up with TV spots inopposition to Republican candidates that are each narrated by awell-known actor.
The spot in Iowa's 1st District features the voice of Stockard Channing,who is probably best-known to Digest readers as First Lady AbigailBartlet on "The West Wing." Channing tells the audience, "Meatprocessing giants misled employees and forced them to work withoutproper COVID protections. [Republican] Ashley Hinson voted to protectthose negligent companies. She even bragged about banning sick Iowansfrom suing." The commercial is running for $230,000.
UA also is up with an ad in the Montana Senaterace that's narrated by Academy Award-winner J. K. Simmons, who isbest-known to the author of this Digest item as Spider-Man foil J. JonahJameson. (Simmons also had a guest appearance on "The West Wing.")"Washington bureaucrats removed Montana's post boxes, while [RepublicanSen.] Steve Daines was too weak and too late to defend us," Simmonssays, "It's a good reason to vote for a leader we already trust." Thesize of the buy is $466,000.
● MN-02: A federal court has grantedDemocratic Rep. Angie Craig's request that the election in Minnesota's2nd Congressional District be reinstated for Nov. 3. Under state law,Democratic Secretary of State Steve Simon had ordered the election be postponeduntil February after Legal Marijuana Party Now candidate Adam Weeksdied last month, but the court ruled that this law conflicted with afederal statute dating to the 1870s requiring that elections forCongress be held the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Due to the uncertainty around the timing ofthe election, we had removed our rating from this race. With theelection back on for November, we are reinstating our rating of "LikelyDemocratic." Republican Tyler Kistner, who opposed Craig's request, will appeal.
● NE-02: On Friday, Republican state Sen. John McCollister announced that he was backing Democrat Kara Eastmanover his party's candidate, incumbent Don Bacon. McCollister arguedthat, while Bacon refuses to stand up to Donald Trump, Eastman wouldn't"buckle under any pressure from the Democrat Party." McCollister, whoseson works for the Eastman campaign, made his move days after formerDemocratic Rep. Brad Ashford threw his support behind Bacon.
McCollister, who was elected in 2014 tosucceed none other than Ashford, has had a terrible relationship withhis party for a while. The state GOP even asked McCollister to leave theparty last year after he said that Trump and other Republicans were"enabling white supremacy," though he said he wanted to remain aRepublican to fix the party. McCollister also endorsed Joe Biden lastmonth.
● NJ-03:Republican David Richter was on the receiving end of plenty of attacksover his business record during the primary, and the DCCC is now up with a commercialdeclaring he had "to resign in disgrace from his own family's company."The narrator argues that Richter "took millions for himself" while thecompany was losing money, eliminating jobs, and being hit with a"$500,000 fine for accounting fraud."
● OH-13: The Vindicator reports that the Ohio Freedom Fund, a dark money group set up in 2017 to help the soon-to-be-abandoned Senate campaign of Republican Josh Mandel, spent $150,000against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan last month. This is the first notableoutside spending we've seen in the race between Ryan and formerRepublican state Rep. Christina Hagan, a contest that has otherwiseattracted little outside attention.
Ryan and Hagan also each brought in a notable amount of moneyduring the third quarter, though both hauls were far smaller than thetruly eye-popping numbers we've seen across the country. Ryan took in$586,000, which he called a career best, and ended September with$376,000 on-hand. Hagan, by contrast, said she raised close to $500,000,though she did not reveal how much she had left to spend.
This seat, which includes the Mahoning Valley and Akron, went from 63-35 Obama to 51-45 Clinton, but it moved back to the left in 2018 and supported gubernatorial nominee Richard Cordray 57-40 even as he was losing statewide.
● TX-03: Democrat Lulu Seikaly went on TV for the first time on Friday in a coordinated ad campaign with the DCCC that her campaign said was a "high-six-figure broadcast and digital buy."
The commercialties freshman Republican Rep. Van Taylor to Donald Trump and declaresthey "downplayed COVID, with tragic results." The narrator continues,"Now, Donald Trump is pushing through a Supreme Court nominee to ensurethat he and Van Taylor can kill the Affordable Care Act in the courts.Ending protections for pre-existing conditions, and coverage formillions."
Taylor also recently went up with an adthat declares, "Liberal Lulu Seikaly wants to make Texas California."The rest of the spot argues that Taylor is a bipartisan figure who worksto protect people with pre-existing conditions.
● TX-21: Republicans have been running ad after ad depicting Democrat Wendy Davis as weak on public safety, and she's up with a response spot."My granddaughters are how you can see how much the safety of ourfamilies means to me," Davis says, adding, "we need criminal justicereform, but I don't support defunding the police." She goes on to saythat, while she's "worked with law enforcement to pass bipartisanlegislation," Republican incumbent Chip Roy "actually did vote againstfunding for police officers, more than once."
● VA-07: Republican Nick Feltes uses his new TV spotto claim that freshman Rep. Abigail Spanberger and other Democrats"voted to spend public funds on their political campaigns," a themewe've seen in other GOP ads this cycle. Feltes' commercial misleadinglymakes it sound like this legislation has already passed, with hisnarrator declaring, "Washington Democrats and Abigail Spanberger: Theyflood your TV with attack ads, you get stuck with the bill."
As we've written before, the bill Feltes and other Republicans are attacking is the election reform bill HR 1, a groundbreaking voting rights billthat passed the House last year but predictably has stalled in theGOP-run Senate. This act would, among many other things, create avoluntary public financing system for congressional campaigns.
● Polls:
- IL-13: Tulchin Research for the DCCC: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D): 48, Rodney Davis (R-inc): 43 (53-40 Biden)
- KS-02: VCreek/AMG (R) (no client): Jake LaTurner (R): 47, Michelle De La Isla (D): 36
- KS-03: VCreek/AMG (R) (no client): Sharice Davids (D-inc): 56, Amanda Adkins (R): 36
- NE-02: FM3 (D) for CPC PAC: Kara Eastman (D): 47, Don Bacon (R-inc): 45 (53-42 Biden)
- NH-01: Saint Anselm College: Chris Pappas (D-inc): 49, Matt Mowers (R): 41
- NH-02: Saint Anselm College: Annie Kuster (D-inc): 52, Steve Negron (R): 38
- VA-05: GSG (D) for Cameron Webb: Cameron Webb (D): 45, Bob Good (R): 42 (Sept.: 47-46 Good)
IL-13: Betsy DirksenLondrigan recently released a late September GBAO internal that showedher narrowly trailing Republican Rep. Rodney Davis 48-47 as Joe Bidenled 51-44. This central Illinois seat backed Donald Trump 50-44 in 2016, but Davis fended off Londrigan just 50.4-49.6 two years later.
KS-02: The last poll we sawhere was a late July survey from the DCCC Targeting and AnalyticsDepartment that showed Jake LaTurner ahead 45-41 in what was at the timea hypothetical general election scenario: Days after that poll wasconducted, LaTurner beat scandal-ridden Rep. Steve Watkins. This seat,which includes Topeka, Lawrence, and eastern rural Kansas, backed Donald Trump 56-37 four years ago.
KS-03: This is the first poll we've seen from this seat in the Kansas City suburbs. While this district only supported Hillary Clinton 47-46,well-educated suburban areas like this have moved sharply to the leftsince then. Sharice Davids decisively unseated Republican Rep. KevinYoder in an expensive 2018 contest, and so far, neither party has spent any serious money on the general election this time around.
NH-01, NH-02: Another localschool, the University of New Hampshire, recently conducted surveys inboth seats. UNH gave 1st District Rep. Chris Pappas a wider 56-38 edge,while it found Rep. Annie Kuster with a surprisingly small 48-42 edge inthe more-Democratic 2nd District. So far there has been no seriousoutside spending in either the 1st or 2nd Districts.
Mayoral
● Richmond, VA Mayor: Christopher Newport University has released a poll of next month's nonpartisan mayoral election for the Richmond Times-Dispatch that gives Mayor Levar Stoney, who is a potential Democratic candidate for governor in 2021, the lead with 36%.City Councilwoman Kim Gray is in second with 16% while Alexsis Rodgers,a former state director for the National Domestic Workers Alliance, isjust behind with 15%.
If we saw this kind of poll result in almostany other city we would probably predict a runoff for Stoney, butRichmond's unusual electoral system makes things far more opaque. That'sbecause a contender needs to win a plurality of the votein at least five of the nine City Council districts to win outright inround one, so a candidate doesn't need to take anything close to amajority of the vote citywide. Indeed, Stoney himself won the popularvote by a narrow 36-34 in 2016, but he also avoided a runoff by carrying a majority of the Council districts.
The Times-Dispatch writes that thepoll gave Stoney large "advantages in four of the nine voter districts,"showed Grey ahead in her seat, and found "toss-ups" in the other fourconstituencies. However, because about 600 people were polled citywide,that would make the sample size for each Council district only about 67people―far too few to get a good read on voter preferences in any seat.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded on Friday to the United Nations' World Food Programme, an organization that's led by former South Carolina Gov. David Beasley. Beasley was elected in a tight 1994 race only to lose re-election four years later to Democrat Jim Hodges 53-45,a result that makes Beasley the most recent Republican to lose ageneral election for that post. But Beasley got a very different secondact in public life in 2017 when UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, herself aformer South Carolina governor, nominated him for his current job.
The National Journal also notesthat Beasley is only the second-ever American politician to receive theNobel Peace Prize who hadn't served as president, vice president, orsecretary of state. The only other member of this club was longtimeColumbia University president Nicholas Murray Butler, a 1931 recipientwho had served as William Howard Taft's running mate during thepresident's failed 1912 re-election bid and later lost the 1920 GOPnomination for president.
Ad Roundup