Hillary Clinton As An Independent Candidate for President? This Fight Could Go On Beyond The Convention

April 24, 2008

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, USpoliticstoday.com

How long will this Clinton-Obama marathon continue?

Possibly into November.

Consider this scenario:

--After the last primary election votes are counted in South Dakota and Montana June 3 just enough superdelegates declare for Obama to insure his nomination by the thinnest of margins.

--Hillary Clinton claims that the decision to exclude the Florida and Michigan delegations has distorted the nominating process and that the only way to have a fair resolution to this year's campaign is to carry the fight into the general election. She decides to run as an independent.

Unlikely? How can anyone discount any bizarre development in this strangest of presidential election campaign years? In fact, some Clinton insiders have been floating this very possibility. At the moment, a Clinton independent candidacy is viewed as an idle threat, designed to pressure superdelegates with a party disaster if they don't nominate Clinton. But when you look at the electoral college calculus, an independent run could represent a realistic path to the White House for Clinton.

Here's how one Clinton supporter, who already has done the math, sees a three-way race unfolding:

Clinton would concede McCain the South, with the exception of Arkansas, Florida and Louisiana. She would concede him the middle west, with the exception of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. And she would concede him the Rocky Mountain west, with the exception of New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Montana. All of that would give McCain 196 of the 270 electoral votes needed to become President.

Keeping most of her current base of women, Hispanics, older voters and blue collar workers, Clinton would have a fair chance to beat both McCain and Obama in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, New York, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Nevada and New Hampshire. That would give her 165 electoral votes.

Clinton would expect to lose only Illinois, Hawaii and the District of Columbia---28 electoral votes---to Obama.

The fight, according to this scenario, would be for Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Missouri, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. A combination of factors would give Clinton an edge in these states.

Wouldn't a divided Democratic party leave the door open for McCain to win handily? Not necessarily, the thinking goes. McCain already is pulling some heavy anchors: Bush fatigue, a faltering economy, McCain's determination to keep troop levels high in Iraq, his iffy support among the GOP conservative base and his age. In most of the competitive GOP primaries earlier this year McCain drew only a third or less of the Republican vote.

This week in Kansas City, Missouri, the Conservative Party is nominating Alan Keyes for President. He is likely to be on the ballot in nearly 50 states and will be a magnet for disenchanted evangelicals and fiscal conservatives alike. Very soon, the Libertarian Party, energized by the Ron Paul experience, is likely to nominate former Georgia congressman Bob Barr for President. Together, Keyes and Barr can be expected to pull as much as 5 points from McCain in many states.

Some Clinton insiders see the 1992 election, where Bill Clinton won with only 43% of the vote, as a reasonable model for 2008. George H.W. Bush, the sitting president that year, only drew 38% of the vote.

With Clinton as an independent candidate (with Republican Senator Chuck Hagel as a running mate?)suppose in October polling would show something like this: McCain, 40%; Clinton, 33%; Obama, 27%. And in key battleground states such as California and New York, suppose that the polling looks like this: Clinton, 38%, McCain 36%, Obama, 26%. Given such numbers, the Clinton campaign could launch a major effort to convert Obama voters to Clinton as the only alternative to a McCain election.

If those spinning this scenario are right about the 11 states in which Clinton would have the edge in a three way match up, she would need wins in only two-thirds of the battleground states to reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.

And if she fell short but still had parity with McCain in electoral votes? Then the decision would go to the House of Representatives, most likely controlled by the Democrats. If Obama trailed Clinton badly in electoral votes congressional Democrats would be hard-pressed to hand him the White House.

In 2006, Joe Lieberman lost his Connecticut Senate primary but still managed to win as an independent. He's suffered no consequences for that in the Senate Democratic caucus. If Clinton were to beat Obama in November and be in position to gain the White House, you can be sure that congressional Democrats would not punish her for her infidelity.

Most commentators are focusing on Hillary Clinton's slim path to the Democratic Party's nomination. Behind the scenes, some in the Clinton camp are beginning to see another path, one that leads through the back door.

Joe Rothstein is a veteran national political strategist and media producer and editor of USPoliticstoday.com. He can be contacted at joe@ipdgroup.com.