...And Now The 'Moderate' McCain Needs to Run to The Right

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, USPolitics.einnews.com

February 7, 2008

As of this writing Republican voters in 27 states have cast ballots to select a nominee for President. Republican voters in fifteen of those states have selected someone other than John McCain.

In reliably Republican Alaska, McCain finished fourth behind Romney, Huckabee and Ron Paul. In marginally Republican Nevada he finished third, again beaten by Ron Paul.

In five of his winning states---New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri and Oklahoma---McCain's vote was no higher than 37%. In only three states did McCain's primary vote top 50%: Connecticut, New Jersey and New York. None of those three states are likely to vote for him, or any Republican nominee, in November.

Seldom has a standard bearer won the nomination in either party with a performance as weak as McCain's. McCain's primary vote was particularly dismal in the reddest of states. Some examples:

Utah 5%
North Dakota 23%
Arkansas 20%
Georgia 32%
South Carolina 33%
Alabama 37%
Tennessee 32%

In battleground states that have shown a tendency to tip either Democrat or Republican, McCain's numbers were also grim:

Minnesota 22%
Colorado 19%
Missouri 33%


Hillary Clinton won her home state(s) of New York and Arkansas by 57% and 70% respectively. Barack Obama carried his home base of Illinois with 65%. John McCain only drew 47% of the vote in Arizona.

Many Democrats look at the current head to head match ups between McCain, Clinton and Obama and fear that McCain could ride into the White House on the tail of a strong independent voter tide---overcoming all of the obvious Bush and Republican fatigue.

For that to happen, those independents would have to forget that they want the troops home from Iraq. They would have to vote for McCain assuming he means what he says about attacking Iran. On health care, additional tax cuts for the rich, privatization of social security, elimination of popular government services and a whole menu of other issues, McCain isn't where most voters are. All of this will be the stuff of speeches, ads, debates and the literature of the general election campaign once the Democrats have their nominee.

McCain obviously understands that his current popularity with independents rests on the twin pedestals of his resistance to many of the excesses of the Bush years and to his earned heroic record as a prisoner of war. When most voters match their interests against the programs and policies a President McCain would champion, that reality will erode a lot of the current enthusiasm for him.

The most conservative voters in the Republican Party have been voting against McCain all primary season. He is well positioned to cut them loose and run toward the center. But the center's going to be a tough spot for him once the general election campaign begins. To have any hope at all of winning in November he needs the very conservative voters who have been shunning him in the primaries.

That explains his attempt to woo the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference with some of these promises:

"Senator Clinton and Senator Obama want to increase the size of the federal government. I intend to reduce it.

"I will not permit any expansion whatsoever of the entitlement programs that are bankrupting us. (read here social security and medicare).

"Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will raise your taxes. I intend to cut them. I will start by making the Bush tax cuts permanent. I will cut corporate tax rates from 35 to 25% to keep industries and jobs in this country.

"They will offer a big government solution to health care insurance coverage. I intend to address the problem with free market solutions and with respect for the freedom of individuals to make important choices for themselves."

...And so on.

Those were good applause lines with the conservatives. It's what McCain must do to enlist a very right wing party reluctantly behind him.

But the speech he gave today, and the positions he holds on key issues, won't wear well with the moderates and independents he needs to win in November. That's McCain's dilemma. And the Democrats' huge opportunity.

Joe Rothstein, editor of US Politics Today, is a former daily newspaper editor and long-time national political strategist based in Washington, D.C.

See all previous articles by Joe Rothstein here.