It's Possible No One Will Win The GOP Nomination During The Primaries

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, USPolitics.einnews.com

January 9, 2008

If someone asked me to bet today that the Republican presidential nomination won't be decided until the Minneapolis convention, I'd likely take that bet. But I'd want good odds. Not since Eisenhower beat Taft for the GOP nomination 56 years ago has the Republican convention roll call meant much. Betting on a nominating convention that actually nominates is still a long shot.

Nevertheless, here's why I think we may be in for a Survivor-like drama September 1-4 in Minneapolis: there's enough opposition to everyone currently in the GOP race to keep anyone from emerging as the candidate through the primaries.

Polls tell us that one of the major issues for Republicans is immigration. If that's the case, there's a large swath of Republican voters who won't be lining up behind John McCain. McCain, of course, worked to enact a bill that would provide a legal residency path for illegal immigrants. As if that weren't bad enough, his cosponsor was (gasp) Ted Kennedy.

Anti-immigration voters won't be for McCain. Neither will all those who believe the McCain-Feingold bill was a direct assault on peoples' first amendment free speech rights. And those are very passionate people.

Finally, in Washington McCain is considered a maverick who's unpredictability makes a lot of powerful financial interests very nervous.

Huckabee?

To put it bluntly, the Republican establishment just doesn't want this guy. There's a long line-up of antis here, maybe longer than the one for McCain. For many Republicans he's just as suspect on immigration and taxes. That's compounded by his expressed populism, which sounds to monied interests like an assault on their redoubts.

Many believe that as the Republican nominee Huckabee would be shredded by Democrats because of his total lack of foreign policy experience and his in-your-face religious fundamentalism.

In that case, how about Romney?

Check the latest national Gallup poll and you will find Romney at 9%, running behind McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani and even Thompson.

Despite the millions of dollars he's poured into Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney is proving himself a tough sell with voters. There's a natural anti-Romney constituency that writes him off because he's a Mormon. But the opposition goes deeper than that. After his many campaign twists and turns, Romney is hardly recognizable any more as the moderate-seeming governor of Massachusetts of a year ago. In a year when "authenticity" is a big factor, Romney has spent a lot creating an image that he isn't.

Giuliani?

A year ago most political observers discounted Giuliani because of his pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control positions. Then he had a year-long run at the top of the polls and that gave him a near air of inevitability. Then he bombed in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now we're back to where we started. A pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control candidate isn't going to be the Republican Party's nominee.

Thompson?

Thompson could well be the common denominator that ultimately binds the party. He's conservative enough for the conservatives. He's safe enough for the establishment. He would likely insure continued southern state electoral hegemony. But here's the problem: Thompson is getting lost in a crowded field.

If Fred Thompson wins in South Carolina and runs well in Florida, look for a fire to ignite under his campaign. But those are big "ifs" for someone who has yet to show many sparks as a candidate.

Despite all of the negatives, these five candidates each appears to have the resources to keep moving down the campaign trail, gathering up delegates in their wake. But getting to 51% in a five-way race, a four-way race, or even a three-way race is no small feat. And with such entrenched opposition to each of these candidates, it's hard to see any of them getting there through the primaries.

Before this year is over, it may yet be the Republicans who put on the best show.

Joe Rothstein, editor of US Politics Today, is a former daily newspaper editor and long-time national political strategist based in Washington, D.C.

See all previous articles by Joe Rothstein here.