Georgia's Saakashvili and the Bonaparte Referendum

By Tracy Dove, Ph.D
Editor, The Russia News Service

January 7, 2008

The state-run Russian media made every effort to wag a righteous finger at Georgia this weekend when it tried to pass the torch of unfair election advantage over to their Georgians neighbors, but no one was buying. The snap presidential election called by Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili was fierce, emotional, sensational at times- and full of mistrust. Not even the strong turnout and a 52% outright win in the first round could silence the critics of the President, and now they have attacked the legitimacy of the election by claiming that Saakashvili stole it- Putin style. But the results are in, and the captain is back at the helm. After all, Western capital is pounding at Tblissi's city gates, waiting to find a utility, bank or very long strip of land to buy for pipeline purposes, and it can't be kept waiting. While few of these investment rewards will ever trickle down to the people who voted in the election, there is a good guarantee that at least they won't be stolen- Yeltsin style.

Holding referenda at times of peak political frustration is dangerous and seldom results in any more than a dull sense of patriotism or the sting of a missed opportunity. While the fury of the moment helps to make it a good party, the hangover is always bad, and most citizens get a Lord of the Flies feeling the next day about what they've done. Saakashvili's victory won't have many negative side effects, other than the persistent, though specious rumors that he stole the election. What happened this weekend can easily be labeled as a vote of confidence dressed as a People's Referendum to end the stalemate. In order to avoid suffering the disabling fate of his predecessor- Edvard Schevardnadze- Saakashvili was determined to keep the upper hand and call on all of Georgia to emerge from their weekend dachas for a national show of hands- and he won. There are some interesting parallels in history, but one specific one comes to mind.

In late 1848, a generally mediocre politician named Louis Bonaparte ran for President of France and won with a landslide victory. He had had an insignificant political past, and pundits at the time called him "the least worst" candidate for the job at the time. He ran with the slogan of restoring order in the new Second Republic, and while his successes were noteworthy, there were few in the French parliament who wanted to see him succeed- especially to another term of office. Saakashvili, too, ran as a savior- although not from a different time, like Napoleon's- but from a different country- America. It was Saakashvili the American-trained lawyer's job to put a Nissan Acura in every garage and flat screen in every living room before the Olympics in Sochi took the country off the map after 2014. And Saakashvili was expected to do this in a fractious political climate where civil war was as close as the shotgun neatly tucked away in every Abkhazi or Ossetian closet. So far he has been successful, but a vocal minority in Georgia weren't impressed with the President's agenda.

Napoleon Bonaparte, as President of France, was running out of time in the last year of his term. He claimed he didn't have time enough to do what he had to, and the country's new republican constitution denied him a run for office again. There were monarchist factions that were determined to keep it so, and feeling unfairly hindered, Bonaparte quickly turned to those who wanted to help him. Surrounded by a flock of ambitious army officers, Napoleon Bonaparte toured the country on a "press the flesh"-style election campaign, and tried to motivate Frenchmen around the country to support him for a second term. While the politicking was successful, the French national assembly refused to budge on the matter.

In the end, Bonaparte's brief flirtation with popular politics was too time consuming, and with a good amount of financial support from a mistress he accelerated the democratic process by initiating a coup d'etat. In two referenda Bonaparte- now re-crowned as Emperor Napoleon III- called on the people of France to legitimize his conquests. Frenchmen turned out in droves and approved of the changes, and so began the dismantling of parliamentary government in France that would last until the great defeat in 1870 of Napoleon III in war with Prussia.

France is not enamored of her Bonaparte past. Many say that the only advantage of having Napoleon III rule absolutely was that Baron von Hausman was able to tear down the old city of Paris and create the broad boulevards we now know. In conclusion, his firehouse referenda of 1852 and 53 didn't help much. The Georgian situation is not quite so desperate, but there are lots of traps that Saakashvili must now try to avoid. He had gone into the Georgian countryside and did just what Bonaparte, DeGaulle, Chavez have all done before him and practiced grassroots politics. He spent most of his time with people from the middle class and below, and was even seen handing out free food to coax people out for his rallies. They came. In the end, the election was all declared free and fair by none other than the EU's Javier Solana, and so Saakashvili has returned with a full mandate and a lot to watch out for.

Referenda outside the constitutional structure of a country often lead to disappointments. Saakashvili may press his agenda through, but it may be at the cost of trust and efficacy in the Georgian political system. There have been others besides Napoleon III who have used referenda, but the interesting similarities between the Georgian and 19th century French examples are that in both situations, the patient was considered healed and everyone went back to their business. Saakashvili will have to prove he can come up with the goods and manage the criticism when he doesn't. Referenda are historically fickle.

Tracy Dove, editor of The Russia News Service, is a Professor of History and Dean of Summer Programs for the Lessing Institute. He also teaches history at the Anglo-American College in Prague.

See all previous articles by Tracy Dove here.