In Iowa, Money Counts, Organization Counts, Crowds Count; Enthusiasm Counts; But Experience Has Moved to The Second Tier

By Joe Rothstein
Editor, USPolitics.einnews.com

December 22, 2007

When looking for Iowa caucus insight I turn to the Iowa Independent, an online-only publication staffed by a team of experienced Iowa journalists and savvy political observers.

Rather than rely on polls to answer the who's-ahead-who's-behind questions, the Independent stays in close contact with Iowa political activists, campaign staffs and veteran caucus-goers. Here's their latest take on what's likely to happen January 3.

Among the Republicans, the Independent sees Giuliani finishing sixth, Ron Paul capable of pulling off a big surprise, and Mitt Romney the likely winner.

In a state where organization counts more than most places, Romney's organization is vastly superior to those of all other candidates. His media attacks on Huckabee apparently are taking hold, and the Tancredo endorsement helps verify Romney's credentials on immigration, a big vote driver among Iowa Republicans.

Thompson and McCain both seem to have upward momentum, but the Independent relegates them to fourth and fifth place finishes. The big surprise of the night could be Ron Paul, who has the most enthusiastic supporters---the type who will trudge through knee deep snow to vote at the caucuses.

After all the Huckabee surge media lately, a loss to Romney would let a lot of air out of that balloon. Running poorly in New Hampshire a week later, which seems possible, would bring Huckabee quickly back to earth.

In the tightly stranded DNA of the GOP nomination battle, McCain and Thompson would be the likely beneficiaries of a poor finish by Huckabee in Iowa. McCain doesn't need Huckabee competing for the New Hampshire independent vote and Thompson is more likely to run better in South Carolina if Huckabee's game seems nearly done by then.

But let's not count out the Ron Paul troops. Most mainstream political people dismiss Paul as a quirky sideshow. Sure, he can raise money. Sure, he can dominate on-line polls (including the one on this page). But, the conventional wisdom goes, Paul's only got 6% support in the national polls. That weakness will show up once the voting starts.

Will it? What if Paul beats McCain, Thompson and Giuliani in Iowa? And what if he isn't that far back from Romney and Huckabee? And what if all the press he gets in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire gets New Hampshire voters remembering their state motto: "Live free or die," which could be the Libertarian anthem? And what if he does well in Nevada, which generally expresses the sentiment of the independent-minded western states?

Ron Paul won't be the Republican nominee. Take that to the bank. But if Thompson, Huckabee, and McCain fall away after the early primaries because they run out of money, we might see a marathon struggle among Giuliani, Romney and Paul---with Paul grabbing the libertarian wing of the party, Romney the social conservatives and Giuliani the GOP moderates. That would have all the makings of an historic fight for the soul of the GOP, and one not easily compromised with good-sport losers arm-in-arm with the winners on the Minneapolis podium

...And for the Democrats

The Iowa Independent's political team continues to see Hillary Clinton limping home third, with Edwards and Obama neck-and-neck for first. Obama has the most enthusiastic supporters and draws the biggest crowds. But Edwards has an edge in organizational superiority.

Looking for a surprise? It could be Joe Biden, who might be playing the role of tortoise in his race with a bunch of hares. His crowds are not large, but he seems to pick up support wherever he goes. Why would caucus goers move to Biden? Well, he's male, white and experienced----the profile of most people we've elected to be our President through all of U.S. history.

Previously in this space I've played out a number of scenarios on the Democratic side should Hillary Clinton finish third in Iowa, have a subsequent bad media week and then fail to beat Obama in New Hampshire.

Anticipating just such an outcome, the Clinton camp is mobilizing a huge conference call with supporters on January 4 to spin the results and to help prevent a let-down, like the one that befell 2004's front-runner, Howard Dean, when things went badly in Iowa.

And things are going badly for Clinton in Iowa. She's flooded the state with pre-Christmas surrogates, many of whom seem to be stepping on each other's media coverage and generating a lot of follow up explanations from headquarters. Even the old pro Bill Clinton has caused a bit of backlash with his harsh attacks on Obama.

Clinton's much-heralded "Every County Counts" tour, designed to gin up the troops prior to the Christmas break, drew small crowds---considerably different than the gym-filling, enthusiastic turnouts she could count on early in her campaign.

In Iowa, as anywhere else in politics these days, money counts. And Romney seems on his way toward buying himself an Iowa win.

Organization also counts. And John Edwards seems on the verge of repeating the Iowa result that catapulted him onto the 2004 Democratic ticket.

Crowds count. And Obama is the clear winner here. He started with big and enthusiastic crowds, and he's rolling into January 3 with them.

And flat-out dedication counts. On this score, the Ron Paul people seem to be the big winners. Paul could get the most lift-off of anyone out of Iowa.

What doesn't seem to count is experience in government. It's worth noting that Giuliani, McCain, Clinton, Richardson and Dodd are all laboring to make their case.

Whoever wins the 2008 race for President will run the federal government---its policies, its programs, its people. Many candidates on both sides of the ticket have strong experience in doing just that. But at this stage of the campaign none of them look like winners.

Joe Rothstein, editor of US Politics Today, is a former daily newspaper editor and long-time national political strategist based in Washington, D.C.

See all previous articles by Joe Rothstein here.